ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate

It’s that time of year when most Farmers Markets have opened or are opening soon.  There’s a great website to check out for all the Farmers Markets in Oregon at www.oregonfarmersmarkets.org for specific times and locations.  With the high price of gas and food, it might be a good idea to visit one of these markets near you. Also, the food and flowers are locally home-grown and most are organic, if not all.  The music, laughter, fun and people plus, hopefully; the sunshine will want to get you outdoors.

Below are the Farmers Markets in SW Portland and surrounding suburbs:

TIGARD FARMERS MARKET (http://www.tigardfarmersmarket.com)

BEAVERTON FARMERS MARKET (www.beavertonfarmersmarket.com)

HILLSBORO FARMERS MARKET (www.hillsboromarkets.org)

LAKE OSWEGO FARMERS MARKET (www.ci.oswego.or.us/farmersmarket)

PORTLAND FARMERS MARKET (www.portlandfarmersmarket.org)

SHERWOOD SATURDAY MARKET (http://www.sherwoodmarket.blogspot.com)

CEDAR MILL SUNSET FARMERS MARKET (www.cmfmarket.org)

OREGON CITY FARMERS MARKET (http://www.orcityfarmersmarket.com)

HILLSDALE FARMERS MARKET (www.hillsdalefarmersmarket.com)

WEST LINN FARMERS & ARTISTS MARKETS (http://www.skylineridge.us/eventitem/weekly-west-linn-farmers-artists-market-2)

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

Since it seems no one wants to use the “R” word, I thought I’d look up the history of all the economic downturns and recessions in the U.S. to see when they occurred and how long they lasted.

First, however, here’s a description of the 1980’s recession from “The Power of the Land ” by Fred Harrison:

“As was clearly evident in the 1980’s, land titles rose so high that the return from them does not warrant their cost. Demand for the titles declines and their prices fall. Interest rates follow, as the former buoyant influence of rising land title prices no longer holds them up, decreasing to within the capacity of efficient industry to pay. But by this time, a lack of confidence has pervaded the economy, people stop spending. It takes time for confidence to return. In addition, where governments have borrowed heavily, the debts incurred, including interest, still have to be met and act to retard recovery.

The above sounds exactly like what we’re going through right now….doesn’t it?

HISTORY OF RECESSIONS AND BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE U.S.:

• Panic of 1797 (1797-1800) lasted 3 years
• Depression of 1807 (1807-1814) lasted 7 years
• Panic of 1819 (1819-1824) lasted 5 years
• Panic of 1837 (1837-1843) lasted 6 years
• Panic of 1857 (1857-1860) lasted 3 years
• Panic of 1873 (1873-1879) lasted 6 years
• Long Depression (1873-1896) lasted 23 years
• Panic of 1893 (1893-1896) lasted 3 years
• Panic of 1907 (1907-1908) lasted 1 year
• Post War I Recession (1918-1921) lasted 3 years
• Great Depression (1929-1939) lasted 10 years and included a minor recession in 1937
• Recession of 1953 (1953-54) lasted 1 year
• Recession of 1957 (1957-1958) lasted 1 year
• 1973 Oil Crisis (1973-1975) lasted 2 years
• Early 1980’s recession (1980-1982) lasted 2 years
• Early 1990’s recession (1990-1991) lasted 1 year
• Early 2000’s recession (2001-2003) lasted 2 years

WHAT DO THE ECONOMISTS REALLY KNOW!?

In the early 1990’s, I attended a lecture by a chief economist for one of the largest banks in Portland.  After the lecture, Mr. Chief  Economist opened the floor to questions.  At about the same time, I had noticed my clients were overextended with heavy credit card debt and I was getting concerned.  They would go to apply for loans and were getting denied because they had too much debt.  Not that I knew better or different; however, I asked him if we would ever see a bad real estate market like we did in the 1980’s.  That was an awful time period and I didn’t know if I could survive another one like it.  His response to me, and I will never forget it was: “Oh no, we will never see another situation like the 1980’s recession because our financial system has so many governmental checkpoints that it will never happen again.”  NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN???  That Chief Economist is still at the same large bank in Portland today….what does he know?   Frankly, what do any of them really know? 

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

When I first started thinking about doing a blog I really thought I knew what I wanted to do.  It took two weeks of long hours into the morning to set it up.  Little did I know I was creating a website, something I’d never done before.  There was a new language I had to learn quickly, i.e. google juice, link love, meebo, feedburners, pings, trackbacks, tags, avatars, CSS, box.net, permalinks, WYSIWYG, etc. and I bought Blogging for Dummies which became my Bible.  Although written for beginners it still was above my head at times.  Thank goodness for Kris Keener in our Tech Department of Re/Max Equity Group.  My late night and early morning emails were always answered and she kept me from pulling my hair out!  Hey Re/Max, I think she should get a raise!  She went above and beyond….without her I would not be anywhere close to where I am. 

If you’ve never blogged, let me fill you in.  You type in this little box.  It’s not like typing in Word or Publisher where you can see all your typing.  In a blog, you basically see the few lines you’re typing at the moment.  Unfortunately, I don’t know about other sites and only know wordpress.com.  My site has limited view of what you’re doing.  Once everything was set up, posting pictures was my next hurdle.  In other programs your picture goes where you want it to, not in a blog.  I’d put the picture where I wanted, went in to preview the post, and the pictures were somewhere else.  It took 2-3 days to get that figured out.   Ron Ares of repdx.com helped me with that problem. Twenty-five drafts later my media library started to get full so I decided to delete my pictures and clear up space.  After deleting them, I realized I had delted the pictures from all 25 posts and had to reload them.  What a pain that was.  Another time, I deleted a post by mistake I’d spent hours on.

Portland, Oregon has approximately 8,000 +/- Realtors®, and someone told me there are only 60 of us blogging!

The hardest part for me, however, is finding my “voice”.  Blogging is supposed to be an informal email to the world, a cross between social blogging and posting relevant real estate information.  There’s the catch…when in conversation with someone, I can see them and have no problem finding my voice.  Talking to the ENTIRE WORLD! is not that easy.  The real estate industry is all about what to say, how to say it, when to say it; and mostly, what not to say!  Therefore, I am having difficulty being candid and not “crossing the line”.  Having “foot in mouth” disease doesn’t help either. 

I’ve read the books, read other blogs, been in discussion groups, done the research and haven’t found the “me” as yet.  It is difficult to speak to people that I can’t see or know what their facial reactions are because I’m very much a visual person.  Finding my blog voice by far has been the hardest part of blogging.  My intent is to provide useful information that perhaps you are not aware of so you can make ”good” decisions about your real estate.  Many times I tell my clients that I give them information they may not want to hear but need to hear.  Good or bad, I am a “realist”.  We as Realtors® are given information that isn’t in the media and I am wanting to share some of that with you.  I’m still on my blogging journey to figure this all out.

Now, if I can only figure out how to get my stats into charts and graphs posted into my blog, setup an email subscription box, and learn how to say something in 3 words or less!  I keep hearing the chant—edit, edit, edit. I’ve been working on that too!

 (For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

There’s an investment strategy I’ve always heard, “Buy low, sell high”. The people who purchased in 2004, bought high and are now selling low. The buyers who aren’t buying now and “on the fence” waiting to buy, are they waiting for interest rates to go higher and values to go up?

Interest Rates as of today: 

• 30 year conforming - 5.875
• 30 year jumbo - 6.875
• 7/1 jumbo - 5.75
• Oregon VA - 5.25
• Oregon State Bond - 5.625

According to Bankrate.com, 43% of their panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next 35-45 days. Only 14% think rates will fall, and 43 % believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).

“When everyone else is panicking, it’s time to buy!” - Warren Buffett

I know of buyers who are just “sitting on the fence” waiting for the bottom to drop. You’ll know when the bottom has dropped when interest rates go up and real estate values start going up as well.

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The following is a reprint from TIME magazine (CNN) (April 21, 2008):

“But let’s say you are emotionally ready to be a homeowner. You have good credit, plan to stay put for five years and have been waiting for the perfect entry point. It’s time to get serious–before an inevitable rise in interest rates wipes out your advantage. “The thing that will make home prices stop falling is the very same thing that will push mortgage rates higher,” says Jim Svinth, chief economist at mortgage firm Lending Tree. So anything you gain by a further drop in prices might be offset by rising financing costs.”

“Consider a typical home that sells for $218,900. You put down 20% and get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at today’s rate of 5.5%. Monthly principal and interest come to $994.31. Let’s say that 12 months from now the same house goes for 10% less, or $197,010. But by then the recession is history and the Fed is jacking up rates to stem inflation. If mortgage costs rise a point, to 6.5%, your monthly payment would be $994.94 and you’d have saved nothing. Meanwhile, home prices might steady and sellers might become less willing to negotiate. And you have spent a year living someplace you’d rather not be.”

A recent Realty Time article says to pay more attention to our local market rather than national surveys. They further say:

“A direct impact of national reporting is that consumers do not realize that, in reality, real estate markets are local, not national, and that the doom and gloom reports broadcast nationwide are not necessarily a true reflection of what is happening in their particular market” .

“Market conditions are most favorable for those who plan to buy now and stay put for years.”

“The interest rates are so good right now that this factor alone could actually trump any sort of loss, real or imagined, that a buyer could be worried about by putting in an offer now”

Napoleon Hill: “Do not wait; the time will never be ‘just right.’

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

Last evening I heard that Fannie Mae is about to introduce a program to refinance mortgages for people who owe more than the current value of their homes, a situation known as being “underwater”.  It was also reported in the Wall Street Journal.  Click here to see the article and more particulars of this upcoming assistance.

This is the first time I’d ever heard that word before but think it is a great idea.  However, what bothers me is that it seems to take forever to get things in place.  I’m sure those homeowners who will qualify for this are probably thinking the same thing and that “sooner” would be better rather than “later”.

This program is going to be available to those people who are current on their mortgages and whose loans are owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae.  To me that’s important.  If you read my blog on “Buyers Walking Away from Their Homes and Mortgages”, I don’t believe in rewarding or helping people who ignore their obligations.  Helping people who are struggling or are financially straped or who are trying to make a go of it but for reasons just can’t, I personally feel is a better way to help in the long run.  If you constantly help those who “walk away”, they will continue to do just that.

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

The National Association of Realtors® in their Daily News wrote that borrowers are walking away from their houses, not making any more mortgage payments and months later are sending their house keys back to their lender.

In a recent poll conducted by CNN/Money,  48% of Americans —and the number is still growing — believe that homeowners in trouble should not be bailed out.  Congress has also been split on the issue and President Bush is still promising to veto it. 

In SmartMoney Jonathan Hoenig argues, among many things, that:

“...the real reason to oppose a bailout isn’t that it’s impractical, but that it’s immoral.”

He goes on:

“In America, we have the right to “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness,” but not the guarantee we can live in the four-bedroom Colonial that’s priced way beyond our means. It might sound cold, but homeowners who can’t pay their mortgages should not expect to be able to keep their homes.”

Where has individual responsibility gone? Why are buyers not held responsible for the financial decisions they’ve made? Some of these people who took out sub-prime mortgages should never have bought houses to begin with and over extended themselves.  Many wanted a bigger house than they could afford and bet on constantly rising home prices.  Some were, in fact, speculators hunting for a “quick buck”. During the 1980’s recession , I don’t remember having short-sales to fall back on. Nothing was “forgiven”. People had to bring money to the closing table to get their houses sold if they purchased for more than their houses were worth or if they could no longer afford to keep their house; otherwise, they went into foreclosure. We didn’t have government bail-out programs either.  Who’s going to be saved next?  Is no one responsible for their actions anymore???

I don’t care who you want to blame for the sub-prime mortgage mess, (and I know there were/are some shady lenders out there) but ultimately it was the buyers’ decision! No one forced these borrowers to take the loan…or that they had to sign on the dotted line. It was their decision, their decision alone, and now they can just walk away?  I was in the same position as these homeowner’s in the 80’s, but I didn’t get bailed out. Instead, I went and got 3 part-time jobs plus still working my full-time job as a Realtor® in order to pay my bills.

Further, there has been story after story from all across the U.S. of borrowers who are not only taking all the cabinets, toilets, mouldings, appliances with them but they are also vandalizing the properties that they are walking away from. A recent video from CNN showed pictures of houses recently vandalized in Las Vegas where walls were damaged, houses were stripped of everything and destroyed by borrowers who walked away from their mortgages. 

Those borrowers who have chosen to walk away will not be able to get another mortgage through Fannie Mae for 5 years unless there are “documented extenuating circumstances”. In that case, the prohibition is three years. Even after the prescribed time has elapsed, a borrower with a foreclosure in his file will have to make at least a 10% down payment and have a FICO credit score of at least 680 to qualify for a Fannie Mae loan. Freddie Mac, which counts foreclosures as a major credit “black mark” for seven years, is now aggressively pursuing walk-away borrowers where permitted under state laws.

Federal legislation enacted last year allows homeowners who negotiate loan modifications with lenders and have portions of their principal debt eliminated (short sales) to escape income tax liability for the amount forgiven. “Walk-away” borrowers, however, will have nothing forgiven and the Internal Revenue Service may demand taxes on the balance they never paid.

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

Happy Mother’s Day to ALL the Mom’s out there!

 M-O-T-H-E-R

“M” is for the million things she gave me,
“O” means only that she’s growing old,
“T” is for the tears she shed to save me,
“H” is for her heart of purest gold;
“E” is for her eyes, with love-light shining,
“R” means right, and right she’ll always be,
Put them all together, they spell “MOTHER,”

A word that means the world to me.

–Howard Johnson (c. 1915)

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

Here are MLS stats for the First Quarter of 2007 vs. the First Quarter of 2008 in Lake Oswego (ML 147), Tigard (ML 151), and SW Portland (ML 148). This information does not include condos, townhouses or attached homes but only single-family residential data. 

There were some dips in some spots and some increases in others.  It will be interesting to see what the differences will be in the 2nd Quarter of 2008.  I will be reporting on that quarter as soon as the data is available. 

LAKE OSWEGO (147) 2007 vs. 2008 Stats:

Recently our public broadcasting station OPB had a show where Jacques Cousteau and his team went to the outer islands of Hawaii that tourists and most people never get to see. On Midway, they found dead bird after dead bird. After examining them they determined they all had died from eating the garbage left behind from the war that was contaminated with high levels of lead.

In the paper I read doctors are now testing Baby Boomers because we all grew up surrounded by lots of lead. Researchers are now wondering if there is a connection between lead and Alzheimers or any of the other diseases inflicted upon us as we age. Lead was mostly used in the U.S. prior to 1978. We’ve all heard the recent news reports on the dangers of lead in toys. However, lead can also be found in paint, soil, drinking water, pipes, building materials, in our homes, and pottery to name a few.

Our local news had a story about two young boys who suffered possible brain damage due to the home they were living in. This older home was being repainted and the painter used a blow-torch to remove the “lead-based paint” off the home. This then created dust with extreme concentrates of lead that the kids inhaled.

Realtors® in Oregon have a Lead-Based Paint Disclosure pamphlet “Protecting Your Family From Lead in Your Home” that we are required to hand out to home buyers when they write an offer on a house constructed prior to 1978. CLICK HERE for a link to that 16 page-pamphlet. There is also a lead-based paint contingency period for the buyer to have a lead-based paint inspection and request any information the seller has in regards to lead- based paint in the form of a Disclosure Addendum.

Lead poisoning is a serious matter.  After seeing all those dead birds and hearing about those two young boys, only now have I realized how dangerous lead really is to humans. Lead in your bloodstream can lead to high blood pressure, digestive and reproductive problems, kidney damage, nerve disorders and more.

Here are 6 tips to protect yourself and your family from lead poisoning:

1. Have your blood tested to determine your lead level.
2. Use only fresh, cold water for drinking and cooking. Run the water from the cold water tap until the water feels noticeably cold. This flushes standing water out of pipes, replacing it with fresh water.
3. Wash hands frequently.
4. Have children play on grass instead of bare dirt. Take shoes off when entering the house to avoid tracking in soil that may contain lead.
5. Meals high in iron, Vitamin C and calcium keep you from absorbing lead.
6. Get your tap water tested for lead.

CLICK HERE for a Lead & Safe Guide or www.oregon.gov for more information. You can also go to www.epa.gov/lead or call the INFO line at 800-424-LEAD.

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

On my way into the office this morning, I was reminded of something that recently occurred on a listing appointment.  There’s a neighborhood that is adjacent to a religious building.  When I meet with owners to list their houses, I am frequently requested to advertise their house is close to this structure.

Unfortunately, I cannot advertise this fact in the MLS listing nor in any newspaper advertisements.  It is against Federal law and pertains to not only selling but also renting of properties. When posting listings into MLS, Realtors® are reminded with a ‘pop up screen” of words (in red ) that we cannot use in describing properties. 

Our MLS home page says: “All real estate advertising is subject to the Federal Fair Housing Amendments Act of 1988 which makes it illegal to advertise any preference, limitation or discrimination based on race, color, religion, national origin, sex, handicap or familial status, or an intention to make such preference or discrimination. State of Oregon law prohibits discrimination based on marital status.  This website will not knowingly accept any advertising for real estate which is in violation of the law.”

For sale by owners and landlords are bound by this law as well.  Perhaps you weren’t aware of this, didn’t think this law applied to you, or thought it only applied to Realtors®!  There recently was a lawsuit against craigslist where a property owner made discriminatory remarks about a home they were selling.  If you don’t know what these descriptive words are, perhaps you should become familiar with this law.  One more reason to hire a Realtor!®

 (For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).