Oregon Map

In July, I reported on June stats for the sub-prime mortgage condition in Oregon based on information from the Federal Reserve.  The August 2008 stats are out and are posted below along with July stats which I never got around to posting. 

For the Federal Reserve sub-prime mortgage map for all of the U.S. CLICK HERE . Oregon showed an increase in delinquencies and foreclosures for the month of August.  The number of households who are current on their mortgage is also slipping and has decreased in August as well.   However, I’ve read that foreclosures are actually dropping throughout the rest of the country.  Most economists agree that without a housing recovery, there won’t be an economic recovery and that housing will lead us out of this downturn.

SUB-PRIME MORTGAGE CONDITIONS IN OREGON

• Loans Per 1,000 housing units = 22.1 June/20.5 July/19.9 August
• In foreclosure per 1,000 housing units = 1.3 June/1.4 July/1.3 August
• REO’s per 1,000 housing units – 0.4 June/0.5 July/0.5 August
• Share of ARM’s = 65.9% June/64.8% July/64.5% August
• # current on their mortgages = 74.9% June/71.5% July/70.4% August
• Share 90 days delinquent on their mortgages = 5.7% June/6.2% July/6.6% August
• Share in foreclosure = 5.7% June/6.7% July/6.8% August
• Median Combined LTV = 89.9% June/89.8% July/89.7% August
• Share low FICO and high LTV = 10.5% June/10.5% July/10.4% August
• Share low or no documentation = 27.3% June/27.3% July/27.2% August
• Share ARM’s resetting in 12 months = 46.9% June/43.4% July/41.2% August
• Share late payments within last 12 months = 38.6% June/42.0% July/43.3% August

NATIONAL SUBPRIME CONDITION:

• Subprime ARMs constitute only 6.1% of all mortgages; only 4.0% of all homeowners.
• Subprime ARMs account for 40.5% of foreclosures
  

  Image from First American Core Logic (Q3-2008)

• Half of subprime loans issued during 2005-2007 were ARMs
• 1-year ARM rates hit high of 5.7% in 2006 and 2007
• Recent rising foreclosure rates have been associated with a rising number of resetting subprime loans
• 2008 represents a peak for resets
• Volume of Upcoming Resets:  First Half of 2008 had $55.5 Billion,  Second Half of 2008 will have $80.0 Billion.  2009 will have $72.3 Billion

From FirstAmericanCoreLogic:

“The house price acceleration rate, a measure of the rate of change in the appreciation rate itself, is beginning to show signs of moderation. This moderating trend over the last two quarters indicates that the house price rate of decline is slowing down, a first step toward the bottoming out of price declines, which must occur before any recovery can begin. There are other factors, of course, that could reverse this positive trend—seasonality, increasing stock of REO properties, the economy, inflationary risks—but for now we view the trend data as a glimmer of hope for the market.

Mortgage risk in any market depends on the interaction of housing prices, the local mortgage market, and area economic health. Geographic concentrations of mortgage risk are currently driven by house price declines, worsening economic conditions, and financial market dislocations. The decline in house prices has created a self-reinforcing feedback loop where lower prices lead to more defaults and excess housing inventory, which in turn reduces demand and causes prices to fall further.”

(Source:  FirstAmericanCoreLogic)

© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.

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