It seems odd that almost at the same moment I stated on my blog I was no longer going to post “negative” and only positive information,  the economy started showing signs of a blossoming Spring with the financial markets improving.  Almost at the same time, the stock market started going up, you started hearing more hope in the daily news as well.  You’re seeing more and more articles about real estate bottoming, the economy starting to show improvement, etc.  I certainly know I didn’t have a hand in it, but how much doom and gloom can we take?  I, for one, am done with it, whether the economy agrees with me or not.  It’s time to get things moving forward again.  Blame it on the sunshine (what little we’ve had in Portland lately), blame it on Spring, or whatever you like, but I will be reporting the shifts in the real estate market and the glimmers of hope I’m seeing.

OREGON IN TOP 5 “MOVE TO” DESTINATIONS

Recently, Allied Van Lines released its annual survey of top relocation destinations and Oregon ranks towards the top.  Who was #1?

For the fourth year in a row, Texas took the lead as the No. 1 destination state in 2008 based on Allied’s report, which tracks U.S. migration patterns.

Texas achieved the highest net relocation gain (inbound moves minus outbound moves performed by Allied Van Lines) of 1,903 in 2008. Also for the fourth year in a row, North Carolina placed second on the list with a net relocation gain of 800, followed by Virginia in third place with a gain of 398.

Colorado and Oregon placed fourth and fifth respectively for states with the largest net relocation gains.

GLIMMERS OF HOPE

The government is moving with full force and taking steps to increase the flow of credit, providing incentives for buyers especially first-time home buyers, and helping home owners who are facing foreclosure or assisting in modifying loans.  The Mortgage Bankers Association states that housing starts are down and mortgage applications are up.  The combination of these two should help drain off inventory of unsold homes.  Builders are offering lower interest rates and incentives to reduce their new construction inventory.   The Commerce Department said new home starts dropped to an annual rate of 466,000 units in January.  Permits for new housing construction fell to a rate of 521,000 units.  Both are record lows.  Interest rates are also at historic lows.  And, real estate websites have stated their on-line searches by consumers for homes has surged 40% in January alone.

CASE SHILLER vs. ZILLOW vs. RMLS™

If you’ve read my blog, you know I don’t put much faith in the Case-Shiller Report or in Zillow because they both include housing stats from counties in Vancouver, Washington along with the Portland Metro and Beaverton stats.  I still believe that our RMLS stats are the most accurate because I can narrow the searches.  However, recently I read an article on Zillow comparing Case-Shiller numbers with Zillow numbers and I thought it was interesting. Each reflects the Portland Metro market differently.  It also shows that Portland had only 16% of the homes sold in 2008 in foreclosure.  Of the 20-composite index of major cities, Portland ranked second behind Boston with the lowest percentage.

PORTLAND, OREGON APPRECIATION/DEPRECIATION

Next week I’ll report on early March stats for the Portland metro area.  Our official stats won’t be out until mid-April from RMLS™.

Here are some charts that I had in another post but are being updated with 2008 information.  The stats show appreciation (or depreciation) for the three areas that I focus on in this blog:  Lake Oswego, SW Portland and Tigard.  If you want information on your “local” area, I’d be happy to send it via email to you.

As you can see, SW Portland still appreciated in value during 2008 by 2.2%.  The only time this area depreciated was 2001 from the stats showing 1992-2008. It again reiterates what I’ve been saying – that the closer in areas did better in 2008 than the suburbs.

Lake Oswego, however, wasn’t as lucky.  As indicated in many of my posts, Lake Oswego felt the downturn more than many other areas decreasing in value during 2008 by -4.6% and had depreciation in 2001 as well.

However, for the year, Tigard’s values dropped even further than Lake Oswego’s did.  Their values in 2008 dropped by -5.9% but had not fallen in 2001 like both Lake Oswego or SW Portland. The good news is that Tigard saw a whopping 24.6% increase in 2005.

I believe, all in all, things will only get better.  There is light at the end of the tunnel and it will shine brightly again soon.

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