UNEMPLOYMENT

I’m not here to debate how bad the unemployment figures are.  The recent report was worse than expected and we continue to lose jobs.  Until the job market improves, I personally don’t think our housing market will improve.  There are ”housing experts” saying that this is the worst unemployment picture since the Great Depression.  The job report shows the unemployment rate now stands at 9.8 percent- highest level hit since 1983.  Another 263,000 jobs lost last month.  Larry Summers recently stated that jobs are a lagging indicator and are 2 months behind a recession ending and the Administration won’t consider that a recovery has taken place until the job market improves.

Economist – Bill Conerly has said:

“One last comment on unemployment:  look carefully at the historic pattern and you’ll see that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, meaning that it starts to improve after the overall economy is already improving.  As such, it does not prevent the economy from improving.

If high unemployment prevented a recovery from recession, then we never would have recovered from our first recession.  But we’ve recovered from it, and from every other recession.

There are plenty of things to worry about.  The high unemployment rate preventing a recovery is not one of those things.”

CBS News reported the other evening that any recovery is being clouded by the jobs report.  If you’ve been reading my blog you know my concern about economists missing the mark and not knowing this recession was coming.  Now comes a new book that says more or less the same thing.  The economists should have seen this financial crisis coming and I’m not the only one who feels this way.

DELINQUENCY RATE  AND FORECLOSURES IN PORTLAND

First American Core Logic ranks Portland as still having a low delinquency rate.  Portland is considered to be a “Type 2″ which means a relatively low mean delinquency rate – well under 10% with little or no mass in high delinquency neighborhoods.  Portland, Seattle and Charlotte, NC are in this “Type 2″ model.

First American CoreLogic also reports that Portland and Oregon continue to fare better than the national average but the picture is still bleak. Portland’s foreclosure rate in August was 1.8 perecnt, up from .7 percent a year ago. The Oregon foreclosure rate was 1.8 percent and the national average was 2.9 percent. The 90-plus-day delinquency rate in Portland and Oregon was 4.8 percent and nationally it was 7.1 percent.

Housing Wire  says when the 60-plus day delinquency and serious delinquency trends were plotted against the foreclosure rates, delinquencies were shown to accelerate faster than foreclosures as loan servicers increase loan modifications and other workout efforts and moratoria cap the foreclosure rates.

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