OREGON’S ECONOMY

According to Yahoo!® recently, Oregon is considered one of the 10 most troubled states. The list is based on several factors, including the loss of state revenue, size of budget gaps, unemployment and foreclosure rates, poor money management practices, and state laws governing the passage of budgets. 

Federal Stimulus Act Transportation Projects Start In ColoradoThese troubles have forced Oregon and the other nine states – as well as many others — to raise taxes, lay off or furlough state workers and slash services. The actions in these 10 states can slow down the nation’s recovery, especially since these 10 states account for one-third of the country’s population and economic output.

The 2009 Milken Institute/Greenstreet Real Estate Partners Best-Performing Cities Index ranks U.S. metropolitan areas by how well they are creating and sustaining jobs and economic growth.  The components include job, wage and salary and technology growth. According to the Milken Institute Study, Portland ranks #37 (last year the outlook was better and we ranked #28) for job recovery.

As you know if you’ve been reading my blog, I was in favor of the extended and expanded home buyer tax credit although many were against it, including many real estate agents.  It wasn’t because I wanted to increase our debt, but I was in favor of it (and I”ve stated this in my blog) because I have sold real estate now through 5-6 recessions and I knew how important housing is to any recovery.

Now comes a study from the Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University “The Role of Housing in Recessions and Recoveries” saying much of what I’ve said in my blog posts: 

“Historically, changes in residential fixed investment (RFI) have contributed significantly to both pushing the economy into recession and lifting it out.”

“The housing downturn has had a dramatic effect on economic growth—directly through the collapse of construction and home sales and indirectly though reduced consumer spending in response to falling home values and the multiplier effects of reduced construction and sales”. 

PREDICTIONS FOR 2010

2010 Real Estate Market

I guess we don’t have to wait until January 1, to read about predictions from economists about 2010 because they are already starting to show up in November instead.  If you didn’t catch this article on CNN, here’s what they have to say about the “bottom” in housing and how they feel real estate will look in 2010.

Our National Association of Realtors® posted their optimistic predictions for 2010 and from local Oregon economist Bill Conerly comes his forecast for 2010 as well.

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