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Our National Association of Realtors® recently published a report on the state of the real estate market throughout the world. If you think our real estate market here in Oregon is crazy, look at the chart above and see what some of the other countries throughout the world have been going through.
New Zealand’s real estate market has dropped in price by 98% during this past decade. In the United States, we’ve certainly seen our bubble burst in most of the real estate markets across our nation, however certainly not as bad as most of the the rest of the countries either.
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This “great recession” has affected everyone worldwide. Data suggests the run up in housing prices occurred in many countries much later than it did in the U.S. and with declines starting sometime in 2008. A group of countries, particularly former communist countries, have seen an unprecedented rise in housing prices followed by an even steeper bust. Some countries saw a steady rise in prices while others had bubbles worse than the U.S.
In Estonia, for example, price changes between the low-high points in the last decade reached 600%. Many other countries saw larger price changes than in the U.S. Singapore, Dubai, Latvia, Iceland and the UK, had price declines following considerable bubbles between 19-50% at the end of the first quarter 2009.
There are other countries, however, that have not experienced any bust at all. Housing prices in some parts of western Europe remained steady over the past decade and have not experienced fluctuations such as Switzerland, Austria, and the Netherlands for example. Those markets already had relatively high home prices.
CLICK ON IMAGE FOR BETTER VIEW
I love this last chart. It really isn’t funny but what better image to show how crazy the times are and our world is. Our market in Oregon is looking pretty good in comparison.
Yesterday, HousingWire had a story where RealtyTrac stated it doesn’t think the “shadow inventory” will do as much harm to our market and the economy as everyone is predicting. You can read it all here.
Source: National Association of Realtors®
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative 
Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
Our November 2009 RMLS™ Stats were published yesterday. Here’s the full report. Prices are still down by 11.4% from even last year although closed sales increased by 72.4%. I think that’s still residue from the first-time home buyer’s tax credit that everyone had assumed would end at the end of November and rushing to get their homes closed. Our inventory, surprisingly, also crept up slightly to 7.1 months from 6.5 the previous month although in many neighborhoods it is a balanced market favoring both buyers and sellers. I’ll break down some stats and dig deeper in the coming days. There are some stats that aren’t as obvious in our RMLS™ report above. Here is also the analysis of the November 2009 stats from the RMLS™ blog.
With the holidays, and depending on the weather this month (after our Arctic Chill), the market has slowed. However, there have been many December months that I’ve been extremely busy and now is the time that serious and transfer buyers are in our marketplace. I’ve written a past post on “Buying A House In The Winter” and why it’s a good idea to buy a house in inclement weather. Hopefully we will see a robust 2010 and that the New Year will start on an upswing.
Frankly I love this time of year as far as real estate goes. It’s that time where everyone has something to say about the housing market,
the economy, etc. and I enjoy reading all about it. I’ve been cleaning out some of my old real estate trade magazines and I have had to laugh on several occasions on some of what has been said over the last several years. Some of it now looking back is shocking – what were they thinking? None of the predictions have come true and all called the recovery far sooner than it had occurred, if in fact it has occurred.
So, here we are again with more people voicing their opinions about where we are heading in 2010 and beyond.
Interest rates are still low and according to this report, Bernanke has no intention of raising them. I’ve also been listening to commentators on whether Bernanke should be replaced or not. What do you think? I have a new poll below for you to vote on whether he should stay or go.
Although unemployment numbers are still high, the job market seems to be improving, at least for the temporary – part-time jobs. Job recovery is supposed to occur by Spring next year says the government. Unemployment, however, here in Oregon is at 11.1% – the most recent numbers that were just released. There’s also a prediction that foreclosures will increase to 4 million in 2010.
According to Forbes magazine, Portland still has overpriced housing inventory and we rank #31 in their latest survey based on stats from Altos Research.
Moody’s just released a series of statistics and predictions on housing through 2012. There are five charts showing the housing industry’s boom and bust during this decade and forecasts the possible course of its recovery the next three years, as reflected in home sales, home prices, housing starts, the supply of homes available for sale and mortgage defaults. All data is quarterly.
So, let us know what you think about Bernanke – all votes are anonymous.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
Oregon Map
OUR LOCAL ECONOMY
The other day I indicated there was a meeting that was going to be held at our Home Builders Association about our local economy. Here’s the report from OregonLive on what the economists said at that meeting:
“Real estate consultant Jerry Johnson predicts that Portland-area home prices will hit bottom in January at about $230,000, down 24 percent from the 2007 peak of $302,000.Johnson, whose firm Johnson Reid was behind a recent housing report I’ve been posting about, has put in as much time as anyone studying the Portland market. His prediction is based on a model built on the Case-Shiller index that shows the region’s average home is still priced 6 percent above the historical trend line.Portland housing market, Crowe on the national housing market and Potiowsky on the general Oregon economy.Last year at the same meeting, Johnson forecasted home prices would strike bottom in September 2009 at about $261,000, down 12 percent from the peak. The reality has been twice as bad thanks largely to the declining economy and double-digit unemployment.
David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, and Tom Potiowsky, the state government’s chief economist, also spoke at the breakfast.
All three speakers seemed to be in agreement about the general direction of the economy in general and the housing market specifically: The bottom is either here or near and the recovery will, in Crowe’s words, be slow and tedious. For example, Crowe said he expects national unemployment to peak in early 2010 at something under 10.5 percent. But in 2011, he expects that rate to hover at a plump rate of 9 percent.
Crowe said housing typically helps pull the economy out of a recession by accounting for one-third of the recovery. But this time, he expects housing will lag because of the credit market ills and an inventory overhang.
On interest rates, Crowe said mortgage rates should rise slightly in early 2010 after the Federal Reserve stops buying Fannie and Freddie loans.
He also cautioned that foreclosures and distressed homes are “the reason you can’t be sure home prices have bottomed.”
One of the other big takes is that the trouble is just beginning for the commercial real estate market. That will continue to put pressure on banks and will prolong the credit crisis for all real estate sectors. This was a group of single-family builders and Johnson gave a blunt and brief overview of the condo market (the all caps are his): CONDO MARKET DEAD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.”
Meanwhile, our NAR (National Association of Realtors®) issued their latest 2010 predictions as well. You can read that here.
First we heard economists say they didn’t know the recession was coming, and now the economists are saying they didn’t think it would get as bad as it did. Further, from the meeting mentioned above comes word that Portland’s housing prices haven’t hit bottom as yet. For once I happen to agree with the economists. I also agree with the comment made above about our condo market in general. As always, it’s about local stats and neighborhood by neighborhood.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
NEW CONSTRUCTION – Nationwide & West Coast
The National Association of Home Builders reports that in October, nationwide housing production fell 10.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000 units in October as builders awaited word on whether an important home buyer incentive would be extended. Single-family housing starts declined 6.8 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 476,000 units, the slowest pace since May of this year with the West declining by 8.5 percent.
Permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, fell 4 percent overall in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 552,000 units, due primarily to a double-digit drop-off on the multifamily side. While single-family permits held virtually flat at 451,000 units, multifamily permits were down nearly 18 percent to 101,000 units. Regionally, permit activity was mixed, with the West posting a 6.7 percent decline. There was also a recent story indicating that lumber prices have increased although housing construction is still down near World War II levels. 
The U.S. Census Bureau also released their construction spending data for October 2009, revealing that the real estate sector dropped 14.4% from October 2008. The residential real estate sector was up 4% which had speculators rallying but spending dropped a staggering 23% from October 2008.
New construction inventory has been falling due to slower than average but consistent salespace coupled with a lag in new spec homes coming on the market. Although sales are trending up, builders are still struggling to close sales. The Census Bureau reports that new U.S. home sales rose to an annual rate of 430,000 in October, up from a revised September rate of 405,000. That’s a 6.2 percent jump, but the increase isn’t statistically significant.
Another report indicates (released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development) that the median sale price of new homes was $212,200 in October with an estimated 229,000 units available at the end of that month, reflecting a 6.7 month inventory.
IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport gives these highlights:
- Inventories fell for the 30th straight month and hit their lowest level since May 1971. That signals that builders at some point will need to boost housing starts again.
- While the October jump wasn’t statistically significant, the trends show that new home sales are improving slowly.
- The tax credit didn’t drive any sales bump because the deals had to close by Nov. 30 and these won’t.
- Selling a new home has never been harder. The median time it takes to sell a new home rose to 13.5 months. The highest reading ever. Builders are still struggling, despite the pickup in sales and the tax credits. Calculated Risk has some nice charts. (See below.)
From Calculated Risk blog
NEW CONSTRUCTION – Oregon
According to a recent housing report from Norris Beggs & Simpson as reported by OregonLive, the unsold inventory of speculative new homes has fallen this year from 1,200 units in January to 679 in September. Washington County has 37 percent of unsold spec homes; Clark County is second with 26 percent, then Clackamas County with 22 percent and Multnomah County with 15 percent. Outlying suburban markets accounted for two-thirds of new spec inventory in the third quarter 2009. New construction sales are down 72% in the Portland area from the peak of the real estate cycle.
NEW CONSTRUCTION – Portland
My regular readers know I’ve been writing relentlessly about smaller houses. From everything I read, and there was an article in the Oregonian recently that mirrored everything I’ve been saying, I believe the public does want the smaller sq. ft. and that builders will hopefully start accommodating that segment of the market.
As I was writing this post I remembered something that happened after the mid-80s recession ended. We didn’t have any new houses to sell. There was no new construction anywhere in the marketplace for buyers to purchase. It took a long time before the builders put new construction inventory back into our market. Will that happen again this go around? I personally don’t think so, but that could happen. With inventory of new houses drying up, builders not building, little to no construction money available, we could be looking at zero new construction as in the mid-80s. I’ve also stated that I believe the large subdivisions are on the way out and that more and more builders, as has already been the case, will be building on in-fill lots or on a build-to-suit only basis for a buyer for some time until new construction gets back on its feet. Sounds like we’re going back to the 80s.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
Here is Part 2 about our Portland, Oregon real estate market for Q3 2009:
OREGON HOUSING PRICES
OregonLive recently reported that Oregon will see 5th worst housing market in the next year:
Oregon’s single-family home prices will fall another 1.8 percent between September 2009 and 2010, the fifth biggest decline projected in the First American CoreLogic Home Price Index. The states expected to do worse than Oregon: Michigan (-6.8 percent), Arizona (-4.8 percent), Washington (-4.2 percent) and Wyoming (-3.3 percent). Looking back, Oregon had the sixth-biggest price decline between September 2008 and September 2009 at 12.6 percent. Ahead of Oregon: Nevada (-25.5 percent), Arizona (-20.3 percent), Florida (-17.7 percent), Michigan (-15.1 percent) and Idaho (-14.9 percent). In both cases, Oregon is doing worse than the national average. First American’s national forecast projects housing prices will bottom out in most markets by March 2010, then turn positive. That obviously won’t be true for Oregon or Portland. First American’s forecast for the Portland market calls for prices to fall 1 percent between September 2009 and September 2010. Here’s a spreadsheet with First American’s forecast for the 50 states.
DISTRESSED PROPERTIES IN PORTLAND
21.9% of listings distressed in PDX
The AP reports that homeowners’ inability to keep up with payments is now more due to unemployment, rather than the sub-prime loans that contributed to the initial increase in foreclosures.
The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicates that the rate of foreclosure for people with fixed rate loans and good credit is on the rise.
A quick search on RMLSweb reveals that in the Portland Metro area, distressed properties currently make up 21.9% of active residential listings (this number takes into account listings that require third-party approval, as this typically indicates a short sale and those that are marked as bank-owned).
During the third quarter, Oregon had the nation’s 44th-highest rate of homeowners who were late on their payments, and the 21st-highest rate of homeowners in foreclosure, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Oregon has a lower-than-average number of homeowners with sub-prime loans, but a higher-than-average number of homeowners with alternative or “Alt A” loans. Those include interest-only loans, Option ARM loans, or “stated income” loans, where there was no required documentation of their ability to pay.
Alt A loans, like sub-prime loans, are falling disproportionately into foreclosure. However, the Mortgage Bankers report does not track Alt A loans as a separate category.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
Here’s Part 1 about the housing market in Portland, Oregon for Q3 2009. Part 2 will appear on Sunday.
HOUSING APPRECIATION
Portland State University issued their Third Quarter 2009 Real Estate Report indicating which areas showed appreciation during the most recent quarter of 2009 – Q3:
- Courtesy Portland State University. Click on Image for Better View
SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL
The National Association of Realtors® reports that 80% of the housing markets across the U.S. had falling prices in the single-family residential housing sector.
Portland, Oregon was not immune to those falling prices, and NAR® reports that Portland for the third quarter of 2009, had prices dropping by -12.2%.
“During the third quarter, 123 out of 153 metropolitan statistical areas reported lower median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the third quarter of 2008, while 30 areas had price gains.
The national median existing single-family price was $177,900, which is 11.2 percent below the third quarter of 2008; the median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 30 percent of transactions in the third quarter, which continued to weigh down median home prices because they sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. (Portland’s median sales price dropped by -10.7% from $280,000 to $250,000 in October 2009).
“The decline in the national median price has moderated recently, and a shrinking supply of unsold inventory suggests we are getting closer to price stabilization in many areas, but we need a steady stream of financially qualified buyers to further reduce inventory and get us to a self-sustaining market,” Yun said. “Foreclosures will continue to come on the market, but rising sales from the expanded tax credit should stabilize home prices by next spring and help to stem future foreclosures.”
In another recent report, across the entire Portland metro area, the market as measured by inventory, is the strongest in the $150,000 to $299,999 price range. That market segment has seen a robust sales pace over the previous 12 months (a 58% share) which has been propped up by the government’s $8,000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. Homes price in the $350,000-$499,000 range have seen significant inventory increase in recent years, up to roughly 9-10 months of inventory in the Third Quarter of 2009 from only 7-9 months during the 2007 peak. However, it is a marginal improvement over 2008 at the same time. The most significant change in the market has been the houses over the $500,000 price. Inventory at the peak of our housing market for that price point was at 12.6 months to over 20 months for Q3 2009.
CNN recently reported that we still have too many houses on the market for sale. According to their recent report based on numbers from the Census Bureau:
“…a full-fledged housing recovery will remain elusive until the market can absorb all the houses and apartments that were built during the housing boom. And on that front, progress has been slow.
About one in seven housing units was vacant in the third quarter, according to the Census Department. This year has registered the highest reading since the government began collecting such data in 1965.
Part of the glut comes from a rash of foreclosures as strapped borrowers fall behind on their mortgages.
But rental apartments are emptying out at a record clip as well, as a spike in the jobless rate and a decade of subpar wage growth have sent many Americans back home to live with Mom and Dad.”
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
OREGON’S ECONOMY
According to Yahoo!® recently, Oregon is considered one of the 10 most troubled states. The list is based on several factors, including the loss of state revenue, size of budget gaps, unemployment and foreclosure rates, poor money management practices, and state laws governing the passage of budgets.
These troubles have forced Oregon and the other nine states – as well as many others — to raise taxes, lay off or furlough state workers and slash services. The actions in these 10 states can slow down the nation’s recovery, especially since these 10 states account for one-third of the country’s population and economic output.
The 2009 Milken Institute/Greenstreet Real Estate Partners Best-Performing Cities Index ranks U.S. metropolitan areas by how well they are creating and sustaining jobs and economic growth. The components include job, wage and salary and technology growth. According to the Milken Institute Study, Portland ranks #37 (last year the outlook was better and we ranked #28) for job recovery.
As you know if you’ve been reading my blog, I was in favor of the extended and expanded home buyer tax credit although many were against it, including many real estate agents. It wasn’t because I wanted to increase our debt, but I was in favor of it (and I”ve stated this in my blog) because I have sold real estate now through 5-6 recessions and I knew how important housing is to any recovery.
Now comes a study from the Joint Center For Housing Studies of Harvard University “The Role of Housing in Recessions and Recoveries” saying much of what I’ve said in my blog posts:
“Historically, changes in residential fixed investment (RFI) have contributed significantly to both pushing the economy into recession and lifting it out.”
“The housing downturn has had a dramatic effect on economic growth—directly through the collapse of construction and home sales and indirectly though reduced consumer spending in response to falling home values and the multiplier effects of reduced construction and sales”.
PREDICTIONS FOR 2010
2010 Real Estate Market
I guess we don’t have to wait until January 1, to read about predictions from economists about 2010 because they are already starting to show up in November instead. If you didn’t catch this article on CNN, here’s what they have to say about the “bottom” in housing and how they feel real estate will look in 2010.
Our National Association of Realtors® posted their optimistic predictions for 2010 and from local Oregon economist Bill Conerly comes his forecast for 2010 as well.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
I’ve written a couple of posts where MERS electronically kept track of notes rather than recording the title at the required county
recorder offices throughout the U.S. Now, it is not only becoming a problem but a headache for many states.
Real estate agents may also now be required to issue a disclosure to buyers when purchasing a short sale or foreclosure indicating there could be a “cloud” on the title in regards to not only first but also second mortgages.
I haven’t heard of it becoming a problem here in Oregon because we weren’t as involved in the sub-prime mortgage market as many other areas. However, it takes one person to test the validity of their foreclosure to bring the problem to the forefront. We may still see a wave of issues here locally as well. You can read more about it here. There are many states that are having lots of problems because of the electronic tracking that MERS initiated. I wonder who thought of that great idea??
Laws are written for a reason. To determine chain of title, it has always been that a transfer of deed needed to be recorded along with the note, in the appropriate county. Afterall, that’s what closing is – recording.
Somewhere, someone got the idea to by-pass that law, make a lot of money and just keep track of the note rather than processing the required and necessary recording. Now it’s coming back to haunt everyone from title companies, lenders, attorneys, courts, real estate agents and not to mention sellers and buyers. Just one more chapter in this foreclosure crisis that everyone now is becoming aware of and we’re probably not through yet.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Click on Image for Better View
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices for 20 metropolitan areas showed a 1% increase in the seasonally adjusted median price of homes from July to August. The index has posted month-to-month gains since June of this year.
Looking at the seasonally adjusted monthly data, 17 metro areas tracked by the index showed improvements in August when compared to July. Meanwhile, 19 out of the 20 markets showed moderation in year-over-year rates of decline. This data is not seasonally adjusted and the August increase shows that was a direct result of the spring-summer selling season and the first-time home buying tax credit. As of August, home prices across the United States are still at their pre-bubble levels of autumn 2003 with Portland showing a -12.5% decrease in values since the same time last year – August 2008.
Housing market analysts cited the Federal government’s $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers as an important factor in the housing market’s recovery of late. I’ve been saying in most of my posts that Portland has also seen a better real estate market largely because of the tax credit.
John Tuccillo recently had this to say:
“Was the jump in existing home sales in September encouraging, misleading, or ho-hum? The answer is yes. It is ho-hum because the pending sales index predicted the jump. So there is nothing new happening in the housing market. It was encouraging because it was more good news about a housing market that is in real recovery.
The coming months will display a consistent positive movement in real estate. It was misleading because the additional sales were “borrowed” from 2010 because of the expiration deadline of the first time buyer tax credit. We will see sales drop as soon as the credit disappears. The state of the market is such now that even an extraordinary piece of data like a sharp monthly rise in sales can support any argument about the future of the market. Where is the truth? My intelligence from around the country tells me that we are somewhere between the last two explanations.
Where there are jobs, supressed demand is emerging and sales–unaided by extraordinary government subsidy–are happening. Yet, where there are no new jobs, the market is almost fully reliant on the tax credit. It strikes me that the best policy for real estate is to encourage in all possible ways the job creation that will guarantee a strong housing market and avoid getting addicted to a government handout that introduces yet another artificial element into the market.”
Although I am in favor of a housing tax credit to boost our market and economy, I do believe and have stated repeatedly in my blog, that until we see unemployment and foreclosures improve here locally, we won’t be seeing a significant or positive housing market in Portland.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
UNEMPLOYMENT
I’m not here to debate how bad the unemployment figures are. The recent report was worse than expected and we continue to lose jobs. Until the job market improves, I personally don’t think our housing market will improve. There are ”housing experts” saying that this is the worst unemployment picture since the Great Depression. The job report shows the unemployment rate now stands at 9.8 percent- highest level hit since 1983. Another 263,000 jobs lost last month. Larry Summers recently stated that jobs are a lagging indicator and are 2 months behind a recession ending and the Administration won’t consider that a recovery has taken place until the job market improves.
Economist – Bill Conerly has said:
“One last comment on unemployment: look carefully at the historic pattern and you’ll see that the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, meaning that it starts to improve after the overall economy is already improving. As such, it does not prevent the economy from improving.
If high unemployment prevented a recovery from recession, then we never would have recovered from our first recession. But we’ve recovered from it, and from every other recession.
There are plenty of things to worry about. The high unemployment rate preventing a recovery is not one of those things.”
CBS News reported the other evening that any recovery is being clouded by the jobs report. If you’ve been reading my blog you know my concern about economists missing the mark and not knowing this recession was coming. Now comes a new book that says more or less the same thing. The economists should have seen this financial crisis coming and I’m not the only one who feels this way.
DELINQUENCY RATE AND FORECLOSURES IN PORTLAND
First American Core Logic ranks Portland as still having a low delinquency rate. Portland is considered to be a “Type 2″ which means a relatively low mean delinquency rate – well under 10% with little or no mass in high delinquency neighborhoods. Portland, Seattle and Charlotte, NC are in this “Type 2″ model.
First American CoreLogic also reports that Portland and Oregon continue to fare better than the national average but the picture is still bleak. Portland’s foreclosure rate in August was 1.8 perecnt, up from .7 percent a year ago. The Oregon foreclosure rate was 1.8 percent and the national average was 2.9 percent. The 90-plus-day delinquency rate in Portland and Oregon was 4.8 percent and nationally it was 7.1 percent.
Housing Wire says when the 60-plus day delinquency and serious delinquency trends were plotted against the foreclosure rates, delinquencies were shown to accelerate faster than foreclosures as loan servicers increase loan modifications and other workout efforts and moratoria cap the foreclosure rates.
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com.
The Wall Street Journal on Friday reported that Portland, OR is one of the 10 cities most likely to have one of the biggest rebounds:
Which Cities Will See Biggest Rebound?
Which cities are likely to be the hottest post-economic downturn destinations for young, brilliant, and highly mobile workers? The Wall Street Journal surveyed six trend-spotting experts and they chose cities based on economic diversity, lifestyle and their own personal prejudices. Here’s the top-10 list:
1. Washington, D.C. (tie) 1. Seattle
2. New York
3. Portland, Ore.
4. Austin, Texas
5. San Jose, Calif.
6. Denver
7. Durham, N.C.
8. Dallas
9. Chicago
10. Boston
Source: The Wall Street Journal, Sue Shellenbarger (09/30/2009)
S&P/Case-Shiller
Many people place heavy emphasis on the Case-Shiller/S&P report that is published at the 
end of each month. If you’ve been reading my blog, you know I don’t. That is mainly because not only is the data 3 months behind, but because our data includes Clark County, Washington and not just the Portland-metro area, and doesn’t include new construction or condos.
Here’s a video from Bloomberg on the report along with the full S&P/Case-Shiller July 2009 report. Some experts believe that the housing market has hit bottom. The first-time buyers and lower range of prices (under the $417,000 conforming loan limit) are reducing those inventories and there are bidding wars in many areas of metro Portland. The mid and upper price levels of our market are having trouble selling and are sitting for sale longer.
Nationally, home prices are still 13.3% below July 2008, however the annual declines have slowed in all 20 cities for the sixth straight month. We’re right there with the rest of the cities at a -13.9% decrease. However, the index has risen at an 8 percent annualized rate in the three months to July, the best performance since early 2006. For the month of August 2009, the Portland metro area had a 2.7% increase in our average sales price. Our September 2009 RMLS™ statistics will be out around October 15. I have written a previous post on our August 2009 RMLS™ stats and you can view that here. The first day in October, I saw an enormous number of houses come off the market either as expired listings, withdrawn or cancelled vs. new listings coming on the market for sale. In addition, I’m still seeing many houses with price reductions.
The Case-Shiller index measures home price increases and decreases relative to prices in January 2000. Since 2000, Portland home values are up 48 percent. The base reading is 100, therefore, a reading of 150 would mean that home prices increased 50 percent since the beginning of that index or 2000. Portland’s index is slightly over the 150 mark at 150.99 showing a 1.1% increase in our housing prices from June 2009 and have increased for 2 months in a row according to the S&P/Case-Shiller report. The S&P/Case-Shiller says “…these figures continue to support an indication of stabilization in national real estate values, but we do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the Federal First-Time Buyer’s Tax Credit in November and anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures.”
Housing Wire reports:
The number of homes sales in Portland, Ore. was at its lowest August level in 15 years, according to MDA DataQuick. There were 3,063 new and resale houses and condominiums sold in the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton metro area in August. That’s down 9.2% from July and the lowest level of August sales in the area since MDA DataQuick began tracking the region in 1994.
The monthly decline in sales nearly eclipsed July’s 9.3% monthly gain and effectively erased July’s 5.8% year-on-year gain, which ended a 40-month run of year-over-year declines. The year-on-year loss continued in August, with sales slipping 0.8% below levels seen in August 2008.
The median sale price for homes in the region was $242,200, up a 0.7% from July but down 10.8% from $271,500 a year ago and down 16.2% from the market peak of $288,858 in August 2007.
Previously foreclosed homes accounted for 15.5% of all resales in the region, up from 14.2% in July and up from 6.8% one year ago. During the month, 675 houses and condos went into foreclosure in the region, down 1.2% from July and up 92.3% from a year ago. The number of August foreclosures is 24% higher than the monthly average during the past year
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
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HUD’s most recent quarterly report was issued the other day. Here are the highlights about metro Portland, Oregon:
- During the 12 months ending June 2009, job losses totaled 55,400 in Oregon. Oregon accounted for one-half the 38,200 manufacturing jobs lost in the region, due mainly to layoffs at Daimler AG and Intel Corporation.
- Regionwide employment declines occurred in nearly every sector, with two-thirds of the job losses recorded in the construction and manufacturing sectors. Government, education and health services, and information were the only sectors to record employment gains, up 21,000, 20,300, and 900 jobs, respectively. For the 12 months ending June 2009, nonfarm employment averaged 1.7 million jobs in Oregon. The regional average unemployment rate increased to 7.5 percent during the 12 months ending June 2009 compared with a rate of 4.8 percent for the same period in 2008. The average unemployment rate, which increased in every state in the region, was 9.4 percent in Oregon.
- Oregon registered the greatest loss in construction jobs, down 14,800 jobs.
- Oregon sales market conditions also remained soft during the 12 months ending June 2009. According to data from the local multiple listing services, the number of new and existing single-family homes sold in the 11 largest markets in Oregon totaled 35,900, a 29-percent decline compared with the number sold during the previous 12 months. During the same period, the average sales price decreased by 13 percent to $271,900. In the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, Oregon-Washington metropolitan area, the number of new and existing homes sold totaled 21,100, down 34 percent compared with the number sold during the 12 months ending June 2008, and the average price decreased 11 percent to $298,800.
- Oregon, permits totaled 5,900, a decline of 2,100 homes, or 18 percent, from a year ago.
- In Oregon, 3,400 multifamily units were permitted, 1,200 fewer than the number permitted during the 12 months ending June 2008.
- In the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton metropolitan area, rental housing market conditions were balanced in the second quarter of 2009. According to Reis, Inc., the apartment vacancy rate was 5.8 percent, up from 5 percent in the second quarter of 2008. The average rent was essentially flat at $750 over the same period. Because of limited new apartment construction, rental markets in the Oregon metropolitan areas of Medford, Salem, and Eugene-Springfield remained balanced with apartment vacancy rates of 4, 5, and 5 percent respectively. A year ago, the vacancy rate was 4 percent in all three metropolitan areas. Between the second quarters of 2008 and 2009, average asking rents in these three areas increased between 1 and 2 percent, to $590, $620, and $700, respectively.
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
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There’s been alot written and many debates over the first time home buyer tax credit whether to extend, or not to extend it; to raise the limit, or not raise the limit; to open it up to all buyers or not to open it up to all buyers. Everyone has an opinion and none more than the economists and many Realtors®. You hear the arguments for and against. There are several bills being considered as I write this post and none have been finalized or approved as yet with the November 30th deadline looming. 
I am sure there will be continued debate.
What’s interesting to me is those economists against it are the very people who didn’t see the financial crisis or housing decline coming. Remember it’s been the economists who have said don’t invest in real estate but buy stocks instead. For the most part, many of those Realtors® who are in opposition, weren’t around selling real estate in the 1980s, don’t remember how bad it got or can still get, or they have forgotten. I haven’t forgotten as I was selling real estate here in the 1980s.
Many people feel the home buyers’ tax credit shouldn’t be extended. There are those that feel government shouldn’t get involved and let the market work itself out. There are others who say the focus should rather be on jobs than handing people more money. Like everyone else, I also want our employment situation to improve. There should be less unemployment, with the job market and businesses here in Oregon improving and new industries coming to Oregon to invest. Our unemployment numbers have doubled in Portland, and Oregon overall, since last year. It’s not that I don’t think there should be more emphasis in getting people back to work, because I do. Without jobs people won’t be able to afford houses or much of anything else.
Most of us don’t want bigger government, and we certainly don’t want government to have a “hand” in our lives, nor do we want the long-term debt. We also all want more jobs, more industry, a better economy. On those things we can all probably agree. In normal times, we wouldn’t favor such government involvement, but these are not normal times. I feel strongly that expanding and extending the tax cedit will not only help stabilize housing prices, but will help us from falling back into recession.
In addition, I believe extending the home buyer tax credit to all home buyers and increasing its limit would help nudge housing on a road to recovery. Although expensive, the tax credit went to tax payers and not the guys in their pin-stripped suits on Wall Street. It helped a new buyer get into their first home thereby stimulating further outlays of money into the economy by purchasing additional goods and services. It helped the seller move on and possibly avoid yet another foreclosure. The tax credit put others to work – contractors, landscapers, builders, etc. that have been in dire straits. It helped keep communities intact and retain their sense of pride, prevented houses from going in disrepair and prevented more children from possibly being homeless. It helped decrease the number of houses on the market for sale. Where are these not good things? Albeit, some will say at what cost?
Real Trends just completed a survey about those buyers who have already used the tax credit:
- 94% were aware of the federal first-time buyer tax credit.
- 82% listed the ability to obtain financing as “very important” or “most important.”
- 91% percent reported low home prices as “very important” or “most important.”
- 26% planned to use the tax credit to purchase home furnishings
- 12% planned to use it for home improvements.
As stated above, there is no final outcome to this debate as yet. I attended a meeting of our Portland Board of Realtors® a couple of days ago where a Washington D.C., National Association of Realtors®, Government Affairs representative spoke on the first-time home buyer tax credit among other things. He indicated that more than likely the credit will be extended until June 2010, however, no indication yet as to whether it will be increased in $ amount and open to all buyers. The recovery is not certain yet. Our market is still fragile. Foreclosures remain at record levels, unemployment is still rising and home prices are not rebounding. An extended and expanded tax credit would provide continued momentum and keep us on the road to a full recovery – at least that’s my opinion.
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
Based on a Blog at WordPress.
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I’ve been cleaning up some of my posts from the past 16 months since I’ve been blogging. Over that time, I have written many posts about unemployment and obviously housing. It amazed me to see how many posts I had written where I indicated Oregon’s economy was strong, growth was good and that our employment situation was far from being as bad as the rest of the U.S. Things have changed dramatically and quickly.
I went on line to see exactly when the unemployment rate started trending up as well as the inventory of houses started increasing because I wanted to see the correlation between the two.
According to the charts it looks as if the unemployment rate started increasing rapidly by Q3 2008 and was low during the peak housing market from 2004 right through that mid-2008 point.
On the other hand, the RMLS™ chart shows our housing inventory started to increase a year earlier in September 2007 when our housing crisis started. Frankly, I was prepared to see the inventory levels increase around the same time as the unemployment numbers started increasing, but that wasn’t the case. Our housing market started declining 12 months before the unemployment rate started skyrocketing.
Our unemployment numbers are horrendous and Portland’s August unemployment was at 11.6% while Oregon is at 12.2%.
In Oregon, we are at the beginning stages of a new Governor’s race. I hope new leadership will focus on bringing jobs and new industry to Oregon.
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
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The deadline is looming and the clock is ticking with the November 30th deadline just around the corner. If you aren’t involved in a transaction by October 1, you may miss out on the $8000 first 
time home buyer tax credit.
First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit
The New York Times wrote an article Friday saying that 100,000s of houses were sold that wouldn’t otherwise have occurred without the tax credit and those sales helped stabilize the real estate market at a time of crisis when fears of a new economic depression were widespread and highly creditable.
There has been talk by lobbyists of getting Congress to increase the tax credit to $15,000 and expanding it to cover all buyers, not just first time buyers. To date, nothing has been finalized. The Times article quotes experts who estimate the cost of extending and expanding the tax credit at between $50 billion to $100 billion.
NAR Weighs In On First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit
According to NAR (National Association of Realtors®), much of the sales activity is due to lower home prices and first-time buyers taking advantage of the $8,000 federal tax credit. Our association estimates 350,000 of the projected 2m first-time homebuyers who have or will take advantage of the credit would not have purchased without the incentive.
NAR expects existing-home sales to rise through the fourth quarter, but unless the tax credit is extended, no one should be surprised to see home sales drop in the first quarter of next year. NAR also expects home sales to increase in Q2010.
Where Is The Tax Credit Going?
CNN just released a map showing where buyers have been taking advantage of the tax credit:
Courtesy: CNN (Click on Image to see larger view)
Majority of Buyers on My Blog Vote For Tax Credit Increase
According to the random poll on my blog, 77% of buyers would purchase if there was a $15,000 tax credit for all buyers. Some economists have stated they are not in favor of extending the home buyers tax credit because of the individual costs added to taxpayers for the long-term debt. Most of the blogs I have read haven’t concentrated on the side benefits of getting that tax credit extended and raised. I wrote a previous post on the value added to Oregon’s economy for each house sold. The additional people that would be employed, the additional purchases home buyers would make to furnish their homes with appliances, fences, etc. would amount to $35,788 per house sold.
In spite of some of those economists and posts on other Realtors’ blogs, I support expanding the current First Time Home Buyer’s $8,000 tax credit to a $15,000 tax credit that is available to all home buyers- anyone who purchases a home as their primary residence with no income requirements. As stated many times in my blog posts, if Congress is serious about getting this economy moving, it begins with housing.
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
Based on a Blog at WordPress.
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****There have been some changes to “categories” in my side bar. If you’re searching for something and can’t find it, see the 3 new categories — New Construction - Condos - Rentals.*****
Now that the economy is picking up, the economists are all out in full force again with their predictions. I thought it would be fun, or at least interesting, to keep tabs on who’s saying what about Oregon and the economy. What’s interesting this time is that I haven’t seen any “middle ground”. Either the economists are saying we are out of the recession on the road to recovery, or they’re saying we are still facing more doom and gloom. I’m not an economist, however, I frankly think until Oregon gets out of the high unemployment numbers and high inventory of houses for sale throughout our Portland metro area, we won’t be on a road to recovery. I personally think we have a “way’s to go” and believe prices still have wiggle room.
ABOUT THE ECONOMY
Their most recent economic data predicts GDP growth will start in September, the first increase since July 2008.
Seven of the eleven leading indicators in the Economic Outlook Index were positive contributors in August: hours worked, building permits, real non-defense capital goods orders, stock prices, ISM export orders, light-vehicle sales and the corporate bond spread. Four indicators had a negative effect on the index, including the money supply, crude oil prices, the real federal funds rate and the interest rate yield curve.
ABOUT PORTLAND, OREGON
S&P/ Case-Shiller’s June 2009 report:
June 2009 Home Price Index
One-Month Change: +1.0%
One-Year Change From June 2008: -15.2%
Peak Month: September 2006
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Robert Shiller had this to say recently about the economy in a NY Times report, aside from his most recent S&P/Case-Shiller June 2009 report:
“The popularity of the term “green shoots” shows the kind of social epidemic underlying our changing thinking. The phrase was propelled in Britain by Shriti Vadera, the business minister, in January, and mutated into a more contagious form after Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, used it on “60 Minutes” on March 15.
The news media didn’t need to change the term for different cultures around the world. With nothing more than a quick translation — brotes verdes, pousses vertes, grüne Sprösslinge, etc. — it is now recognized as a symbol of a revival coming soon.
All of this suggests that a social epidemic is supporting renewed confidence. This confidence can keep growing by contagion, as a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy, and we may see the markets and the economy recover further.But in an economy that is still unstable, the stories could also morph into different forms, the price feedback could turn downward and the dynamic could turn ugly again — just as it has in the past.”
From Oregon State Economist Tom Potiowsky:
…he expects the deep recession to begin easing its grip on Oregon this fall.
Potiowsky warned that it would be an extremely slow recovery. He said joblessness would remain high for some time to come and it could take until early 2013 for state employment to return to pre-recession levels.
Oregon’s unemployment rate hovered at 11.9 percent in July — tied with California for fourth-highest in the nation. Potiowsky said he thinks that leveling off shows that the economic slide has slowed. He anticipates Oregon housing prices will stop falling by the middle of next year — later than other states but ahead of Arizona, Nevada, California and Florida.
A few highlights from Tom Potiowsky, Oregon’s state economist’s forecast:
• Oregon personal income was down $300 million from the May quarterly forecast.
• The economy will not see job growth beyond 2 percent until the first quarter of 2011.
• Population growth has slowed, with Oregon expected to reach 4.1 million by 2015.
• High-tech may not grow as fast as before but will remain an important sector of Oregon’s economy.
• The state likely will see consumer spending and business profits improve before employers begin adding jobs
Economist Bill Conerly from the Businomics Blog:
“I’ve been tempted to proclaim the recession over for the last few weeks. It’s getting real close, but I couldn’t quite pull the trigger. Now I think I’ll wait another month until we get August data. But it looks very likely that, when all is said and done, July or August will turn out to be the very bottom of the recession. (But note that the economy turning up is not the same as the economy recovering all lost ground. That’s still a year away once we reach bottom.)”
From the the Oregonian’s Front Porch blog comes this about Portland/Oregon:
“Mark McMullen, a Moody’s Economy.com director, says the Portland region has probably seen the bottom for new home construction and sales numbers. That should be a boost for construction workers and escrow agents in need of work.
But homeowners shouldn’t get too excited. McMullen, along with national studies and other economists, anticipates further price drops into 2010. Homes around Portland remain overpriced compared with incomes and rents. A growing number of foreclosures will lead to discounted sales prices and tamp down prices.
Potiowsky said home prices could drop anywhere from 3 to 8 percentage points more. Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economist, is less optimistic. He predicts deeper declines, of 10 to 20 percentage points more. McMullen forecasts an additional fall of 9 to 10 points.”
And:
“Multnomah County foreclosures spiking again: Despite some brighter economic news elsewhere, the number of new foreclosure filings is still rising in the state’s most populated county. Thanks to moratoriums on foreclosures, the number of new default notices was essentially flat between the first quarter and the second quarter in the Multnomah County at around 1,400. But through July and August, banks have filed 1,062 defaults, according to county records. That’s roughly a pace of 1,500 for the third quarter. Not good news.”
From Freddie Mac and Bloomberg comes:
Regional Gains, Losses: California, Oregon and Washington had the biggest price gains in the Freddie Mac report, up 3.2 percent in the second quarter compared with the prior three months. Measured from a year earlier, prices were down 16 percent.
Cautious optimism is what I am still preaching,” Sherry Chris, chief executive officer of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate, a unit of Realogy Corp. “There is anticipation that another wave of foreclosures may well hit.”
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
Based on a Blog at WordPress.
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A new report out by First American Core Logic indicates that one-third of all American households are in foreclosure. In addition, First American Core Logic also said that:
“If the decline in distressed sales is sustainable, and not simply a result of recent foreclosure moratoriums, this could be the first step toward recovery, which will then be followed by outright price increases that will result in continued upward price trends.”
First American expects home prices won’t bottom out, however, until the end of 2010 and that subsidies like the first-time home buyer tax credit and artificially low interest rates won’t be around forever, but will contribute to continued lower prices down the road.
Until the unemployment picture and housing foreclosures are addressed, we won’t be seeing much of a recovery, at least in my opinion. Hopefully, however, that will be soon. I find it sad to think we are such a rich nation yet have so many homeless, jobless and so many who have lost their homes to foreclosure.
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
Based on a Blog at WordPress.
We’ve all been in this recession now for a while, too long for most of us. As indicated before, this is my 5th or 6th recession all the while 
selling real estate. Each recession has been different, and each has had its different origins. Inasmuch as economists are all saying we’re out of the recession or will be out by the end of the year, what will our “new” normal look like.
I’m finding that everything “old” is becoming new once again. I’ve read articles where Mortgage Brokers may be on the way out. I personally feel it is better for the consumer if they don’t bite the dust. It looks as if the 20% down payment will now be the standing rule as it was in the past. Once again, I feel that’s a good thing. We have lost sight of what the “American Dream” and home ownership should be or is. Somewhere in either the late ’80s or early ’90s, flipping and/or making a fast buck, and not always legally, became the normal way of conducting business. Again, not a good thing for the economy, individuals, families or the U.S. It hasn’t been good, actually for the global markets either. The last 10-20 years brought about new terminology that has become ordinary, everyday speak. I’m sure there are many new changes on the horizon. There will be some good and once again some bad rules put into place and only time will tell if they will stand and are good for the masses in general.
Our National Association of Realtors® recently published a report (you can click on the link to see the full report) on how the future might look:
“The anticipated $2 trillion budget deficit this fiscal year is simply not sustainable. Aside from burdening the future generation in some distant time, an out-of-control situation could lead to significantly higher interest rates and mortgage rates immediately, which will choke off both business spending and housing recovery. Another concern is the rising oil prices. It is above $70 per barrel. It had been below $50 for most of this year. The $20 higher charge is extracting roughly $400 million out of the economy each day – with the most of the money shipped abroad. If the higher oil price is sustained at $70 or moves even higher, economic growth could be anemic and push the unemployment rate to possibly 11 percent – which would be the highest since the Great Depression.
The recovery in the housing market will lay the foundation for a sustainable economic recovery. With more sustained economic growth, jobs will be created. Job growth is what is needed for consumers to buy furniture, computers, a host of consumer products, and lead to a sustainable rise in auto sales even without the clunker incentives. Despite the risks facing us, our baseline economic forecast still looks much better – with higher home sales, stabilizing home prices, and an eventual recovery in job”.
Here’s an interview that was done out of Seattle on the new normal based upon the above NAR® Report. It’s entirely about the Pacific NW and is interesting as well. In fact, this article makes reference to Kurt Andersen. I recently saw Kurt Andersen, the author of “Reset” on The Charlie Rose Show. You can see that interview here about how this crisis can restore our values and renew America.”
Let’s hope for once the economists are all correct and that we are out of this long recession and are well on the road to recovery. If we are on the road to recovery, time will tell us soon what the new normal will be.
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
Based on a Blog at WordPress.
Invariably when I have a house listed for sale, buyers want to know why the sellers are moving. Typically the reason has nothing to do with the house and really isn’t relevant to a buyer. However, even in these hard economic times, people are still buying houses and moving and of course the reasons vary. Relocation.com just completed a survey indicating why people move:
Here’s what the survey revealed:
- live in a bigger/better home (26 percent)
- live in a better neighborhood or area (24 percent)
- closer to family/friends (12 percent)
- live in an area with a lower cost of living (9 percent)
- move that was sparked by a change in marital status (6 percent).
- moving because of school, job loss, retirement or foreclosure each garnered 3 percent or less
Nearly 42 percent were people buying a home:
- either renters who became homeowners (15 percent)
- homeowners who moved to a new home (16 percent)
- homeowners who moved into a temporary rental as they continued their search for a home to buy (11 percent)
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
Based on a Blog at WordPress.
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Newspapers and print media in many cases have folded. The one thing I enjoy is reading our local newspaper the Lake Oswego Review. Although it can be read on-line, there’s something about thumbing through its pages. And, there’s something else I’ve noticed lately in reading The Review, businesses coming into the retail core area of downtown Lake Oswego.
In one case, a popular locally-owned store and one I frequent regularly,
is currently in a somewhat hidden location at the south end of town. It is now moving into a prime retail site in the heart of Lakeview Village into the vacant retail space formerly occupied by a national chain. Another very popular locally-owned store that previously closed is once again opening and moving into a prime spot formerly housed by a small bank and a third is a service-related storefront new to our area.
Green shoots in Lake Oswego? It is nice to see the “For Lease” signs disappearing and local stores thriving. Because vacant “hot” locations have opened and rents on spaces dropping, it’s making it possible for these businesses to move to the forefront. Congrats to them!
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
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