When I first started selling real estate in 1975 here in Portland, Oregon, I wound up selling lots of acreage out in the country along with building lots in the city.  In selling lots, I would not only find the lots to be built on for my buyers but I would search and find the builder that matched them, helped them pick out floor plans and worked with them during the building construction process until the day the house was completed and they could move in.  My new construction background is quite extensive and I have even drawn blueprints, done partitioning of land, lot-line adjustments, and subdividing of property.  My former husband and I used to build new homes as well.  This experience then extended into representing builders and I have had subdivisions listed where I helped pick the plans and then did what we call “list backs” for the builders with the new homes already built.  At one point I even conducted a new construction class for seniors at one of our local high schools  - Sunset High School - as a representative of our Board of Realtors®, Make America Better Committee.  Those were “the good old days” as they say in the early years of my career.   My first love was and still is vacant land, acreage and new construction.  I used to love searching for that perfect piece for the developer or buyers and could “see” the property developed and built on.

After that, the larger builders and big national builders came in and bought up all the developable land.  The homeowner that wanted to build their one “dream” house and the small builders got lost in the shuffle and no longer had the same opportunities.  It was buying a new home in one of those new subdivisions from the national builder or large local builders and that was pretty much it.  Land use laws came along and were adopted.  They prohibited where building could occur in Oregon and what could or couldn’t be built.

Which brings us to today - 33 years later.  Lately, I have seen a change yet again.  There are now “lots” to be had for the homebuyer’s dream home and for the small builder.  Not only are there lots and acreage available but land that can be subdivided.  There are even platted parcels all ready to be built on that other developers or builders have abandoned.

Now, most of the big national builders have left our area.  Frankly, I haven’t seen this many vacant lots or developable properties for sale in a very long time.  There are builders and developers that would love to “unload” some of their bare ground.

• In searching the MLS for area 147 (Lake Oswego), I found 56 vacant lots and some acreage priced from $179,000-$2,500,000 for .56 acre. 
• ML 148 (SW Portland) had 107 vacant lots or acreage from $79,900 up to $1,690,000 for 2.31 acres; and,
• ML 151 (Tigard) had 58 lots or acreage starting from $89,900 to $998,000 for 1.46 acres. 

This information doesn’t include parcels that can be subdivided or split into more lots with older or tear-down houses on them, as most of those are mainly listed under our residential section and I didn’t search those.  However, I have seen many of those listed as well.  The stats above represent vacant lots or acreage only.

Without a doubt our real estate activity has picked up.  Almost every Realtor® I have spoken to within the last 3 weeks has said they too have noticed increased activity, as I have.  It will be interesting to see what the Q2 stats and June monthly report will be.  You’ll be seeing that information in a post here soon.

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

A good indicator of where the market is heading is by taking a look at “pending sales”.   There was good news in that pending sales for Portland from April 2008 to May 2008 did increase by 2.6% (our latest stats).  However, that’s only a one-month statistic and hopefully this trend will continue. 

Year to date, from May 2007 to May 2008, the number of pending sales were down by 30.5%, the number of closed sales fell by 33.5%, the average home sale prices dropped by 4% and median home sale prices also dropped 3.2%. 

The other good news is that inventory of homes dropped (meaning fewer houses to sell) from 10.3 months in April to 9.2 months in May.  However, one month is not a good indicator as to whether we are at or near the bottom.  

Interest rates will start going up, so by waiting for prices to continue to fall, any gain in lower real estate home prices will be off-set by a rise in interest rates. Typically, in the past, when prices start going up interest rates fall and; likewise, when prices go down rates go up. However, that isn’t always the case.

I read an extremely interesting report by John Maudlin about Inflation and Interest Rates recently (CLICK HERE to read his full story). 

Personally, I still think now is a great time to buy because inventories are high, rates are historically low and there are sellers out there willing to negotiate.

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

With the number of home sales dropping, construction lending is also becoming a problem. You have developers and home builders stuck with houses that aren’t moving. And, they are sitting for sale with loans against them. The sub-prime mortgage market is such a small piece of the banking industry, but construction lending is a core product. If the real estate market continues to stay weak for much longer, construction-loan losses are going to be a big problem.

One of our large, local builders announced this week they are having difficulty paying their sub-contractors and their lender.  They have hired a turn-around specialist but are not intending to file for bankruptcy.  When purchasing new construction in today’s real estate market, you want to be careful of any early releases to a builder of earnest money funds or early release of monies designated for upgrades.  Another problem you have to be careful of is not to waive your rights to an early issue of title insurance or other protection from construction liens.  Consult an attorney if you have any questions regarding these issues. 

I’ve prepared a chart showing the new construction statistics for the First Quarter of 2008 for the following areas: SW Portland (ML 148), Tigard (ML 151), and Lake Oswego (147)  (Click this link to see the Q1-2008 New Construction stats).  

Our Q2 statistics will be available in mid-July and I plan on reporting on that quarter for SW Portland, Tigard and Lake Oswego as well. 

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

Portland had it’s first decline in average sale prices since August 2002 and in median sale prices since May 2001.  Average sale prices dropped 3.9% and the median price of houses fell by 3.5%.

Here are the “average” and “median” sold prices of homes in and around Portland, Oregon for the current month and year-to-date:

AVERAGE PRICE OF SOLD HOUSES IN & AROUND PORTLAND, OREGON - CURRENT MONTH -

• North Portland = $276,200
• Northeast Portland = $305,700
• Southeast Portland = $275,700
• Gresham/Troutdale = $250,300
• Milwaukie/Clackamas = $302,600
• Oregon City/Canby = $381,800
• Lake Oswego/West Linn = $542,600
• West Portland = $460,800
• Northwest Washington County = $382,600
• Beaverton/Aloha = $269,000
• Tigard/Wilsonville = $360,500
• Hillsboro/Forest Grove = $276,900
• Mt. Hood: Government Camp/Wemme = $293,700
• Columbia County = $220,700
• Yamhill County = $263,400
• Marion/Polk Counties = $274,900
• North Coastal Counties = $394,700

MEDIAN PRICE OF SOLD HOUSES IN & AROUND PORTLAND, OREGON - YEAR-TO-DATE

• North Portland = $255,000
• Northeast Portland = $275,000
• Southeast Portland = $245,000
• Gresham/Troutdale = $246,000
• Milwaukie/Clackamas = $294,500
• Oregon City/Canby = $286,000
• Lake Oswego/West Linn = $449,000
• West Portland = $397,000
• Northwest Washington County = $367,500
• Beaverton/Aloha = $250,600
• Tigard/Wilsonville = $337,000
• Hillsboro/Forest Grove = $$259,900
• Mt. Hood: Government Camp/Wemme = $245,000
• Columbia County = $214,400
• Yamhill County = $227,000
• Marion/Polk Counties = $219,900
• North Coastal Counties = $305,900

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

Have you seen that HGTV show perhaps that says ‘What you get for $250,000″ in certain areas?  Or, whatever the dollar amount seems to be, they search the U.S. for houses that fit that price.

Inasmuch as “affordable housing” is discussed a lot these days, I thought it would be interesting to see what you could buy in SW Portland, Lake Oswego, and Tigard, Oregon for under $250,000!  Before I searched, I just assumed I wouldn’t find that many on the westside of Portland, but you may be surprised to see the stats for each of these market areas: MLS 148 (SW Portland), ML 147 (Lake Oswego) and ML 151 (Tigard):

ML 148 (SW Portland):

There were 52 properties for sale in SW Portland under $250,000 at the time of my search.  Of those, three were detached (single family houses) and the rest were condos, townhouses or attached houses.

ML 147 (Lake Oswego):

Not surprisingly, there were only 13 properties under $250,000 in Lake Oswego with all of them being condos, attached houses or townhouses.

ML 151 (Tigard):

Tigard had 31 properties at the time of my search of which six were (detached) single-family houses and the rest all were mobile homes, condos, townhouses or attached houses.  Of those six, four were in a designated 55+ neighborhood. 

When I am working with first-time homebuyers, I always tell them that this is only their “first” home and it won’t be their “last”.  Interest rates are low, we have a plentiful supply of homes to choose from and it’s a great time to buy your “first” home.

For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

Here are the stats for three areas on the westside of Portland that include condos, attached homes and townhouses for the First Quarter of 2008:  Tigard (ML 151), Lake Oswego (ML 147) and SW Portland (ML 148).

Tigard (ML 151):

LISTED:

• Number of condos, attached, and townhouses listed in first quarter of 2008 = 54
• Range of list prices for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $89,000 (Low) to $349,000 (High)
• Average list price for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $225,896
• Average sq. ft. cost of listed properties = $170/sq. ft.

SOLD:

• Number of sold/closed condos, attached, and townhouses sold in first quarter of 2008 = 36
• Range of sold prices for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $110,000 (Low) to $439,395 (High)
• Average sold price for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $221,237
• Days on the Market =  55 Days
• Average sq. ft. cost of sold = $166/sq. ft.
• Average sq. ft. of properties sold = 1332 sq. ft.
• Sold at 98.99% of original list price

Lake Oswego (ML 147):

LISTED:

• Number of condos, attached, and townhouses listed in first quarter of 2008 = 47
• Range of list prices for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $79,000 (Low) to $1,249,000 (High)
• Average list price for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $291,943
• Average sq. ft. cost of listed properties = $222/sq. ft.

SOLD:

• Number of sold/closed condos, attached, and townhouses sold in first quarter of 2008 = 37
• Range of sold prices for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $112,000 (Low) to $1,169,000 (High)
• Average sold price for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $268,865
• Days on the Market = 115 Days
• Average sq. ft. cost of sold = $$204/sq. ft.
• Average sq. ft. of properties sold = 1317 sq. ft.
• Sold at 89.59% of original list price

SW Portland (ML 148):

LISTED:

• Number of condos, attached, and townhouses listed in first quarter of 2008 = 542
• Range of list prices for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $120,960 (Low) to $3,300,000 (High)
• Average list price for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $508,921
• Average sq. ft. cost of listed properties = $397/sq. ft.

SOLD:

• Number of sold/closed condos, attached, and townhouses sold in first quarter of 2008 = 270
• Range of sold prices for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $139,000 (Low) to $1,746,000 (High)
• Average sold price for condos, attached and townhouses listed in the first quarter of 2008 = $470,875
• Days on the Market = 105 Days
• Average sq. ft. cost of sold = $375/sq. ft.
• Average sq. ft. of properties sold = 1255 sq. ft.
• Sold at 96.37% of original list price

 CONDO APPRECIATION

(COMPARES MARCH TO MARCH FOR EACH YEAR)

Average Sales Price          Change from Prior Year

2002                    $169,300                                      N/A

2003                    $164,100                                      -3%

2004                    $173,600                                        8%

2005                    $210,600                                      13%

2006                    $242,800                                      14%

2007                    $251,300                                        4%

2008                    $264,300                                        5%

(All data from the Realtor’s Multiple Listing Service)

(For more local and national real estate news, click on my monthly newsletter - JUNG’S JOURNAL - on my website www.bettyjung.com).

Here are MLS stats for the First Quarter of 2007 vs. the First Quarter of 2008 in Lake Oswego (ML 147), Tigard (ML 151), and SW Portland (ML 148). This information does not include condos, townhouses or attached homes but only single-family residential data. 

There were some dips in some spots and some increases in others.  It will be interesting to see what the differences will be in the 2nd Quarter of 2008.  I will be reporting on that quarter as soon as the data is available. 

LAKE OSWEGO (147) 2007 vs. 2008 Stats:

Recently I saw an article stating there are 3.5 million houses for sale across the U.S. and 2 million are vacant. The Portland Tribune reported that Oregon ranked 73rd out of 100 of the largest metro areas in foreclosures in 2007. The paper also said as of February 1, 2008, there were 2,464 foreclosed properties in Portland. Here’s a link to “The Portland Tribune”

When I started my research for this blog, I was looking for “positive” news and wanted to see if I could dispute The Portland Tribune article. However, I did a check on the First Quarter 2008 for Tigard (MLS Area 151), Lake Oswego (MLS Area 147), and SW Portland (MLS Area 148) from MLS and www.foreclosure.com. The MLS data shows a large number of vacant homes. The foreclosure.com information contradicts the information from our MLS in regards to short sales and foreclosures. Our MLS information is not only data we as Realtors® rely on but our clients do as well so they can make good decisions about their own properties.

Information is only as good as what is input into MLS. There is no way to know if a house has a pending short sale unless the listing agent indicates that on the listing. This data does not indicate those who have missed mortgage payments, are unemployed, who are in the process of negotiating with their lenders or those who are in pre-foreclosure. Perhaps it would be a good idea if our MLS added a “short sale” and/or “foreclosure” parameter in our search as it doesn’t appear that our MLS stats give a true picture!

I can’t verify the accuracy of the foreclosure.com data nor can I verify the accuracy of our MLS data. However, I would venture a guess that our MLS data is not accurate! Frankly, I am frustrated by the lack of correct data provided by the real estate agents themselves and by our MLS. I feel the foreclosure situation here in Oregon, specifically Portland, is greater than is being reported by our MLS. Further, if in fact the numbers at foreclosure.com are correct, we are in for an incredible number of homes still to be foreclosed upon.

Here are my results as per the date I searched:

(NOTE: My MLS search did not include condos, townhouses, attached houses or new construction. My totals do not include the large number of listings saying sellers were “motivated”. Motivated could mean sellers were possibly close to a short sale, foreclosure or needed to sell for other reasons. As far as vacant houses, it would seem those homeowners are just as anxious to sell even if the agents didn’t mention they were “motivated” in the MLS listing. I checked MLS stats two different ways. First, I checked each individual listing and if the listing agent indicated short sale, foreclosure or vacant anywhere on the listing it was noted. We have a search parameter for “3rd party approval” and I checked those listings individually. Third party approval also means relocation (transfer). Those RELO listings were not included in my totals. This data only represents three of our MLS areas and all are on the westside of Portland.)

TIGARD (MLS Area 151):

According to MLS:

January had 56 new listings of which 11 were vacant, 7 were listed as short sales and 2 in foreclosure.

February had 85 new listings of which 25 were vacant, 2 were listed as short sales and 1in foreclosure.

March had 140 new listings of which 30 were vacant, 2 were listed as short sales and none in foreclosure.

In addition, there were 6 properties showing bankruptcies.

According to the website www.foreclosure.com when I did my search, Tigard’s 97223 zip code showed 20 foreclosures and 84 in pre-foreclosure. In the 97224 zip it showed 10 foreclosures with 75 in pre-foreclosure. CLICK HERE to go to the site and you can search by zip codes.

LAKE OSWEGO (MLS Area 147):

According to MLS:

January had 65 new listings of which 13 were vacant, 5 were listed as short sales, and none in foreclosure.

February had 76 new listings of which 20 were vacant, none was a short sale, and 2 in foreclosure.

March had 120 new listings of which 36 were vacant, none was a short sale and 1 in foreclosure.

According to the website www.foreclosure.com when I did my search, Lake Oswego’s 97034 zip code showed 2 foreclosures and 24 in pre-foreclosure. In the 97035 zip, it showed 6 in foreclosure and 66 in pre-foreclosure. CLICK HERE to go to the site and you can search by zip codes.

SW PORTLAND (MLS Area 148):

According to MLS:

January had 124 new listings of which 33 were vacant, 4 were listed as short sales and 1 in foreclosure.

February had 151 new listings of which 59 were vacant, 2 were listed as short sales and none in foreclosure.

March had 191 new listings of which 70 were vacant, 2 were listed as a short sale and 2 in foreclosure.

According to the website www.foreclosure.com when I did my search, it showed Portland (specifically Multnomah County) to have 25 foreclosures and 10,318 pre-foreclosures. CLICK HERE for the site, click on the Oregon map and then find the data for Multnomah County or other counties.

(For more local and national real estate-check out my monthly real estate newsletter-Jung’s Journal-at my website www.bettyjung.com).