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Our November 2009 RMLS™ report was issued the other day and I posted the full report on my blog. At the very end of that report are the condo charts for November 2009. Below are the numbers as to what sold comparing November 2008 vs. 2009. 
There are new changes coming for condo projects and FHA approvals that I’ve written about. Many developers who had projects in various stages of development are now pulling back and won’t be building or continuing with them, others are rethinking future projects. Regardless, the new FHA guidelines will have an affect on the condo market.
In getting the numbers prepared for this post, I was surprised at how many condos/townhouses/attached properties were listed in West Portland. That’s always been the problem with condos. When the economy is good, condos flood the market for sale and when there’s a recession, there are too many on the market and don’t sell. This will change when the market picks up and you will see more condos built once again and condo conversions taking place. Perhaps this time however, like builders of new residential construction, they will think long and hard in the future whether that’s a good business move or not and time will tell what the new normal will be.
| November Condo Stats | #147Lake Oswego | #147West Linn | #148West Portland | #151Tigard |
| November 1-30, 2008 | ||||
| # Sold | 11 | 5 | 62 | 15 |
| Average Days On Market | 125 | 110 | 92 | 69 |
| Average $/sq. ft. Sold | $202 | $123 | $328 | $159 |
| Average Sold Price | $300,562 | $193,850 | $375,546 | $195,037 |
| % of Sale Price vs. List Price | 94.78% | 95.79% | 95.65% | 101.42% |
| Average Sq. Ft. | 1484 | 1568 | 1146 | 1229 |
| November 1-30 2009 | ||||
| # Currently For Sale | 170 | 53 | 814 | 92 |
| # Sold | 21 | 6 | 82 | 21 |
| Months of Inventory | 8 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 4.3 |
| Average Days On Market | 82 | 139 | 104 | 82 |
| Average $/sq. ft. Sold | $176 | $139 | $104 | $137 |
| Average Sold Price | $164,450 | $193,850 | $325,701 | $177,457 |
| % of Sale Price vs. List Price | 99.73% | 99.89% | 99.1% | 95.13% |
| Average Sq. Ft. | 1112 | 1465 | 1100 | 1295 |
| Source: RMLS |
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative 
Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
Our November 2009 RMLS™ Stats were published yesterday. Here’s the full report. Prices are still down by 11.4% from even last year although closed sales increased by 72.4%. I think that’s still residue from the first-time home buyer’s tax credit that everyone had assumed would end at the end of November and rushing to get their homes closed. Our inventory, surprisingly, also crept up slightly to 7.1 months from 6.5 the previous month although in many neighborhoods it is a balanced market favoring both buyers and sellers. I’ll break down some stats and dig deeper in the coming days. There are some stats that aren’t as obvious in our RMLS™ report above. Here is also the analysis of the November 2009 stats from the RMLS™ blog.
With the holidays, and depending on the weather this month (after our Arctic Chill), the market has slowed. However, there have been many December months that I’ve been extremely busy and now is the time that serious and transfer buyers are in our marketplace. I’ve written a past post on “Buying A House In The Winter” and why it’s a good idea to buy a house in inclement weather. Hopefully we will see a robust 2010 and that the New Year will start on an upswing.
Frankly I love this time of year as far as real estate goes. It’s that time where everyone has something to say about the housing market,
the economy, etc. and I enjoy reading all about it. I’ve been cleaning out some of my old real estate trade magazines and I have had to laugh on several occasions on some of what has been said over the last several years. Some of it now looking back is shocking – what were they thinking? None of the predictions have come true and all called the recovery far sooner than it had occurred, if in fact it has occurred.
So, here we are again with more people voicing their opinions about where we are heading in 2010 and beyond.
Interest rates are still low and according to this report, Bernanke has no intention of raising them. I’ve also been listening to commentators on whether Bernanke should be replaced or not. What do you think? I have a new poll below for you to vote on whether he should stay or go.
Although unemployment numbers are still high, the job market seems to be improving, at least for the temporary – part-time jobs. Job recovery is supposed to occur by Spring next year says the government. Unemployment, however, here in Oregon is at 11.1% – the most recent numbers that were just released. There’s also a prediction that foreclosures will increase to 4 million in 2010.
According to Forbes magazine, Portland still has overpriced housing inventory and we rank #31 in their latest survey based on stats from Altos Research.
Moody’s just released a series of statistics and predictions on housing through 2012. There are five charts showing the housing industry’s boom and bust during this decade and forecasts the possible course of its recovery the next three years, as reflected in home sales, home prices, housing starts, the supply of homes available for sale and mortgage defaults. All data is quarterly.
So, let us know what you think about Bernanke – all votes are anonymous.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
From our RMLS™ comes this information regarding FHA:
We all know that FHA Loans have increased in the past few years with the changing market, but how much? I recently ran some numbers on financial terms, a required field in RMLSweb, that may shed some light. These numbers are for the Portland metro area (Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington and Yamhill counties).
As you can see, sold listings with the financial terms “FHA” have increased in the RMLS™ Portland market area from just 1.2% in 2007 to 28.1% of sales through October 2009. These numbers are closely in line with national levels; a recent report stated that FHA loans are up to 30% this year from 3% in 2006.
Although buyers utilizing FHA financing has increased dramatically, the preferred method of financing (by 49.3% of sales) in the Portland metro area is still conventional financing. HUD is considering increasing the downpayment for FHA from the minimum of 3.5% to 5% for buyers. By the first of the year 2010, we should know whether this will take effect or not. I feel this is bad timing for this increase. The housing market hasn’t begun to improve or rebound sufficiently as yet, and to make it more difficult for buyers to purchase isn’t something the real estate industry, or buyers and sellers of houses, need at this point.
The home buyer tax credit extension for first-time home buyers and for move-up buyers couldn’t come at a worse time. With winter storms throughout the U.S. and the holiday season, the time to purchase is dwindling away rapidly for anyone wishing to utilize that credit. Personally, I don’t see where that will help with an uptick in sales at this time of the year.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
Oregon Map
OUR LOCAL ECONOMY
The other day I indicated there was a meeting that was going to be held at our Home Builders Association about our local economy. Here’s the report from OregonLive on what the economists said at that meeting:
“Real estate consultant Jerry Johnson predicts that Portland-area home prices will hit bottom in January at about $230,000, down 24 percent from the 2007 peak of $302,000.Johnson, whose firm Johnson Reid was behind a recent housing report I’ve been posting about, has put in as much time as anyone studying the Portland market. His prediction is based on a model built on the Case-Shiller index that shows the region’s average home is still priced 6 percent above the historical trend line.Portland housing market, Crowe on the national housing market and Potiowsky on the general Oregon economy.Last year at the same meeting, Johnson forecasted home prices would strike bottom in September 2009 at about $261,000, down 12 percent from the peak. The reality has been twice as bad thanks largely to the declining economy and double-digit unemployment.
David Crowe, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, and Tom Potiowsky, the state government’s chief economist, also spoke at the breakfast.
All three speakers seemed to be in agreement about the general direction of the economy in general and the housing market specifically: The bottom is either here or near and the recovery will, in Crowe’s words, be slow and tedious. For example, Crowe said he expects national unemployment to peak in early 2010 at something under 10.5 percent. But in 2011, he expects that rate to hover at a plump rate of 9 percent.
Crowe said housing typically helps pull the economy out of a recession by accounting for one-third of the recovery. But this time, he expects housing will lag because of the credit market ills and an inventory overhang.
On interest rates, Crowe said mortgage rates should rise slightly in early 2010 after the Federal Reserve stops buying Fannie and Freddie loans.
He also cautioned that foreclosures and distressed homes are “the reason you can’t be sure home prices have bottomed.”
One of the other big takes is that the trouble is just beginning for the commercial real estate market. That will continue to put pressure on banks and will prolong the credit crisis for all real estate sectors. This was a group of single-family builders and Johnson gave a blunt and brief overview of the condo market (the all caps are his): CONDO MARKET DEAD UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.”
Meanwhile, our NAR (National Association of Realtors®) issued their latest 2010 predictions as well. You can read that here.
First we heard economists say they didn’t know the recession was coming, and now the economists are saying they didn’t think it would get as bad as it did. Further, from the meeting mentioned above comes word that Portland’s housing prices haven’t hit bottom as yet. For once I happen to agree with the economists. I also agree with the comment made above about our condo market in general. As always, it’s about local stats and neighborhood by neighborhood.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
NEW CONSTRUCTION – Nationwide & West Coast
The National Association of Home Builders reports that in October, nationwide housing production fell 10.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 529,000 units in October as builders awaited word on whether an important home buyer incentive would be extended. Single-family housing starts declined 6.8 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 476,000 units, the slowest pace since May of this year with the West declining by 8.5 percent.
Permit issuance, which can be an indicator of future building activity, fell 4 percent overall in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 552,000 units, due primarily to a double-digit drop-off on the multifamily side. While single-family permits held virtually flat at 451,000 units, multifamily permits were down nearly 18 percent to 101,000 units. Regionally, permit activity was mixed, with the West posting a 6.7 percent decline. There was also a recent story indicating that lumber prices have increased although housing construction is still down near World War II levels. 
The U.S. Census Bureau also released their construction spending data for October 2009, revealing that the real estate sector dropped 14.4% from October 2008. The residential real estate sector was up 4% which had speculators rallying but spending dropped a staggering 23% from October 2008.
New construction inventory has been falling due to slower than average but consistent salespace coupled with a lag in new spec homes coming on the market. Although sales are trending up, builders are still struggling to close sales. The Census Bureau reports that new U.S. home sales rose to an annual rate of 430,000 in October, up from a revised September rate of 405,000. That’s a 6.2 percent jump, but the increase isn’t statistically significant.
Another report indicates (released jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development) that the median sale price of new homes was $212,200 in October with an estimated 229,000 units available at the end of that month, reflecting a 6.7 month inventory.
IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport gives these highlights:
- Inventories fell for the 30th straight month and hit their lowest level since May 1971. That signals that builders at some point will need to boost housing starts again.
- While the October jump wasn’t statistically significant, the trends show that new home sales are improving slowly.
- The tax credit didn’t drive any sales bump because the deals had to close by Nov. 30 and these won’t.
- Selling a new home has never been harder. The median time it takes to sell a new home rose to 13.5 months. The highest reading ever. Builders are still struggling, despite the pickup in sales and the tax credits. Calculated Risk has some nice charts. (See below.)
From Calculated Risk blog
NEW CONSTRUCTION – Oregon
According to a recent housing report from Norris Beggs & Simpson as reported by OregonLive, the unsold inventory of speculative new homes has fallen this year from 1,200 units in January to 679 in September. Washington County has 37 percent of unsold spec homes; Clark County is second with 26 percent, then Clackamas County with 22 percent and Multnomah County with 15 percent. Outlying suburban markets accounted for two-thirds of new spec inventory in the third quarter 2009. New construction sales are down 72% in the Portland area from the peak of the real estate cycle.
NEW CONSTRUCTION – Portland
My regular readers know I’ve been writing relentlessly about smaller houses. From everything I read, and there was an article in the Oregonian recently that mirrored everything I’ve been saying, I believe the public does want the smaller sq. ft. and that builders will hopefully start accommodating that segment of the market.
As I was writing this post I remembered something that happened after the mid-80s recession ended. We didn’t have any new houses to sell. There was no new construction anywhere in the marketplace for buyers to purchase. It took a long time before the builders put new construction inventory back into our market. Will that happen again this go around? I personally don’t think so, but that could happen. With inventory of new houses drying up, builders not building, little to no construction money available, we could be looking at zero new construction as in the mid-80s. I’ve also stated that I believe the large subdivisions are on the way out and that more and more builders, as has already been the case, will be building on in-fill lots or on a build-to-suit only basis for a buyer for some time until new construction gets back on its feet. Sounds like we’re going back to the 80s.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
OregonLive recently had a story about a Norris Beggs & Simpson report indicating that prices in Portland are still too high by 6%. I recently posted Part 1 and Part 2 of the Q3 2009 stats. In that post, I indicated that inventory had dropped and that all the markets had improved as far as the number of months of available houses for sale. We base a lot of our stats and predictions on what that housing inventory is. Our inventory has been dropping, which is good. We’ve been wanting our inventory to decrease.
However, in doing a comparison from June 1 to November 30, in the last month there has been:
- a decrease in the number of houses listed
- a decrease in the number of properties sold
- a decrease in the listing $ volume
According to the stats below, each market has had the number of houses listed decrease by 50% or more from June 1 to November 30. The listed $ volume likewise, and stands to reason, has dropped by 50% or more in each of those markets as well. In addition, only around half of the houses listed got sold.
Below are the stats for the three areas my blog covers – Lake Oswego, West Linn (RMLS #147), West Portland (RMLS #148) and Tigard (RMLS #151).
RMLS™ #147 – Lake Oswego
RMLS™ #147 – West Linn
RMLS™ #148 – West Portland
RMLS™ #151 – Tigard
If you took out the first-time home buyers who purchased, our real estate market here in Portland would look a lot worse than it does. Even with that tax incentive, our sales volume has dropped by more than 50% just in the last month.
Now that the tax credit has been extended, it will be interesting to see if sales will continue on an upswing, or if we will continue to see the numbers dropping as they have lately. My guess is that inventory and sales volume will continue to decrease over the next several months due to 1) seasonality 2) weather 3) high unemployment and 4) owners losing their homes to foreclosures and short sales.
Our official November stats from RMLS™ will be published around December 14 and I will be completely surprised if it doesn’t show a decrease in inventory once again. I’ve seen many houses come off the market in the last week where people are either tired of their homes sitting unsold, are being taken off the market because of the holidays, or perhaps are now facing either a short sale or foreclosure.
We won’t know what 2009 really looked like until the end-of-the-year report from RMLS™ which won’t be available until mid-January. Foreclosures and short sales are still at record numbers due to our high unemployment. We need jobs for our economy and our real estate market to fully recover here in Oregon.
There is a meeting being held today at the Home Builders Association by leading economists. It will be interesting to hear their 2010 predictions.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
Here is Part 2 about our Portland, Oregon real estate market for Q3 2009:
OREGON HOUSING PRICES
OregonLive recently reported that Oregon will see 5th worst housing market in the next year:
Oregon’s single-family home prices will fall another 1.8 percent between September 2009 and 2010, the fifth biggest decline projected in the First American CoreLogic Home Price Index. The states expected to do worse than Oregon: Michigan (-6.8 percent), Arizona (-4.8 percent), Washington (-4.2 percent) and Wyoming (-3.3 percent). Looking back, Oregon had the sixth-biggest price decline between September 2008 and September 2009 at 12.6 percent. Ahead of Oregon: Nevada (-25.5 percent), Arizona (-20.3 percent), Florida (-17.7 percent), Michigan (-15.1 percent) and Idaho (-14.9 percent). In both cases, Oregon is doing worse than the national average. First American’s national forecast projects housing prices will bottom out in most markets by March 2010, then turn positive. That obviously won’t be true for Oregon or Portland. First American’s forecast for the Portland market calls for prices to fall 1 percent between September 2009 and September 2010. Here’s a spreadsheet with First American’s forecast for the 50 states.
DISTRESSED PROPERTIES IN PORTLAND
21.9% of listings distressed in PDX
The AP reports that homeowners’ inability to keep up with payments is now more due to unemployment, rather than the sub-prime loans that contributed to the initial increase in foreclosures.
The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicates that the rate of foreclosure for people with fixed rate loans and good credit is on the rise.
A quick search on RMLSweb reveals that in the Portland Metro area, distressed properties currently make up 21.9% of active residential listings (this number takes into account listings that require third-party approval, as this typically indicates a short sale and those that are marked as bank-owned).
During the third quarter, Oregon had the nation’s 44th-highest rate of homeowners who were late on their payments, and the 21st-highest rate of homeowners in foreclosure, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Oregon has a lower-than-average number of homeowners with sub-prime loans, but a higher-than-average number of homeowners with alternative or “Alt A” loans. Those include interest-only loans, Option ARM loans, or “stated income” loans, where there was no required documentation of their ability to pay.
Alt A loans, like sub-prime loans, are falling disproportionately into foreclosure. However, the Mortgage Bankers report does not track Alt A loans as a separate category.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
Here’s Part 1 about the housing market in Portland, Oregon for Q3 2009. Part 2 will appear on Sunday.
HOUSING APPRECIATION
Portland State University issued their Third Quarter 2009 Real Estate Report indicating which areas showed appreciation during the most recent quarter of 2009 – Q3:
- Courtesy Portland State University. Click on Image for Better View
SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL
The National Association of Realtors® reports that 80% of the housing markets across the U.S. had falling prices in the single-family residential housing sector.
Portland, Oregon was not immune to those falling prices, and NAR® reports that Portland for the third quarter of 2009, had prices dropping by -12.2%.
“During the third quarter, 123 out of 153 metropolitan statistical areas reported lower median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the third quarter of 2008, while 30 areas had price gains.
The national median existing single-family price was $177,900, which is 11.2 percent below the third quarter of 2008; the median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 30 percent of transactions in the third quarter, which continued to weigh down median home prices because they sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. (Portland’s median sales price dropped by -10.7% from $280,000 to $250,000 in October 2009).
“The decline in the national median price has moderated recently, and a shrinking supply of unsold inventory suggests we are getting closer to price stabilization in many areas, but we need a steady stream of financially qualified buyers to further reduce inventory and get us to a self-sustaining market,” Yun said. “Foreclosures will continue to come on the market, but rising sales from the expanded tax credit should stabilize home prices by next spring and help to stem future foreclosures.”
In another recent report, across the entire Portland metro area, the market as measured by inventory, is the strongest in the $150,000 to $299,999 price range. That market segment has seen a robust sales pace over the previous 12 months (a 58% share) which has been propped up by the government’s $8,000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. Homes price in the $350,000-$499,000 range have seen significant inventory increase in recent years, up to roughly 9-10 months of inventory in the Third Quarter of 2009 from only 7-9 months during the 2007 peak. However, it is a marginal improvement over 2008 at the same time. The most significant change in the market has been the houses over the $500,000 price. Inventory at the peak of our housing market for that price point was at 12.6 months to over 20 months for Q3 2009.
CNN recently reported that we still have too many houses on the market for sale. According to their recent report based on numbers from the Census Bureau:
“…a full-fledged housing recovery will remain elusive until the market can absorb all the houses and apartments that were built during the housing boom. And on that front, progress has been slow.
About one in seven housing units was vacant in the third quarter, according to the Census Department. This year has registered the highest reading since the government began collecting such data in 1965.
Part of the glut comes from a rash of foreclosures as strapped borrowers fall behind on their mortgages.
But rental apartments are emptying out at a record clip as well, as a spike in the jobless rate and a decade of subpar wage growth have sent many Americans back home to live with Mom and Dad.”
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
Guest Author:
Steve Stenger, President
Condo Approval Professionals LLC
(847) 293-2962
E-mail: steve@condo-approval.com
Website: www.condo-approval.com
Changes to FHA Condominium Guidelines
FHA has made changes to the condominium guidelines as indicated in Mortgagee Letters 2009-46A and B. These changes are effective as of December 7, 2009. I have outlined the positives and negatives of the upcoming changes. First there are a couple of definitions:
There are two (2) types of project review:
- HRAP (HUD review and approval process).
- DELRAP (Direct Endorsement Lender Review and Approval Process). Direct Endorsement (DE) Lenders now have the option to submit projects under this process or HRAP if they choose. They must have the staff that has the capabilities to review and approve projects. Or they can use an experienced consultant to review their projects for compliance.
Positives:
- If the project has started construction prior to submission to FHA an Environmental Report will not be required. This means that if the plat or development plans and any delineated phase have been reviewed and approved by the local jurisdiction and construction of the streets, sewers, and utilities have proceeded to a point that changes cannot be made to the building an Environmental is not required. Not required under DELRAP reviews.
- Site condos (single family detached under condominium ownership) no longer require project approval.
- Project approval not required for FHA to FHA streamline refinance or FHA/HUD REO sales.
- Condominiums that consist of 2 or more units are now eligible for FHA financing. Previously FHA only considered condominiums consisting of 4 or more units.
- Right of First Refusal now acceptable as long as it does not violate discriminatory conduct under the Fair Housing Act Regulation.
- 30% pre-sale and 50% owner-occupancy down from 51%. That means in a 100 unit project only 30 percent will need to be under contract and only 15 units sold to owner-occupant/2nd home purchasers.
- 1 year waiting period for apartment conversions is eliminated. Previously, outside purchasers in an apartment conversion with tenants, had to wait for 1 year after the Declaration had been recorded in order to close on a unit.
- 10-year warranty not required on new construction as long as the local jurisdiction provides a building permit to start construction and also provides a certificate of occupancy prior to closing.
- Attorney’s Certification no longer required.
- Vertical Phasing in single building new construction or condo conversions is now acceptable. The floors must be legally phased in groupings of no less than 5 floors. At least a temporary Certificate of Occupancy has been obtained and all common areas and amenities have been completed.
- Increase in FHA loan concentration from 30% to 50% for new construction and condo conversions. 100% for existing condos that meet the following:
- Project has been completed for over 1 year
- 100% of the units have been sold
- No entity owns more than 10% of the units
- Budget has a 10% reserve contribution
- Control has been transferred to the homeowners
- 50% of the units are owner-occupied.
- Reserve Study not required on existing condo projects. It may be required if the budget doesn’t meet FHA’s 10% reserve requirement.
- FHA will now accept temporary/conditional Certificates of Occupancy for new construction and conversions under the following circumstances:
- All common areas and amenities for the project must be complete
- The temporary/conditional Certificate of Occupancy that was issued clearly indicates that the unit his habitable and eligible for immediate occupancy.
- The jurisdiction that is issuing the temporary/conditional Certificates of Occupancy have a standard protocol for this procedure.
- Vacant or tenant-occupied REO’s including properties that are bank owned maybe excluded from the required owner-occupancy percentage.
- Unrecorded documents are acceptable when a project is submitted for review. However, no loan can be insured until the recorded documents are received.
Negatives:
- No “spot” loan approvals. Existing condominiums must be submitted to FHA for their review and approval as of February 1, 2010. However, I can help with this process.
- No more than 10% of the units may be owned by a single investor. FHA is saying that this will apply to builders/developers that subsequently rent vacant or unsold units. In today’s market, developers are staying afloat by renting units until they can be sold. Now they cannot do that for more than 10% of the units.
- Developers will have to provide a certification that states that:
- The eligible condominium project complies the all applicable FHA requirements addressed in Mortgagee Letter 2009-46B.
- All condominium documents meet all HUD requirements, and state and local requirements.
- Projects consisting of 3 or less units will have no more than 1 unit use FHA financing.
- The 30% pre-sale requirement is indicated to be temporary, to be re-evaluated at the end of 2010. Hopefully, they will decide to keep it.
- FHA concentration level of 50% is temporary as well.
- HO-6 policy now required on FHA condominiums following Fannie Mae’s requirement.
- FEMA Flood Map required for all projects to verify whether or not a project is in a Flood Zone.
- Project approvals expire two (2) years from the date HUD issued their approval of the project. I can assist realtors, homeowner’s associations, and management companies with the recertification process.
- Projects that received approval prior to October 1, 2008 will require recertification on or before December 7, 2010. If they are not recertified by that date, they will be removed from the FHA approved list and have to reapply which requires a full document submission.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
I posted a new picture Thursday on my Lake Oswego Living.A Photo Blog. Take a look if you haven’t seen it as yet.
CONDOMINIUMS
Condos in 55 metro areas showed that the national median existing-condo price was $178,000 in the third quarter, down 15.4 percent from the third quarter of 2008. Four metros showed annual increases in the median condo price and 51 areas had declines. According to the NAR® report, Portland’s condo market had a -7.0% drop in prices. That’s the 30th biggest decline nationally.
3 Year Condo Median Prices As Of October 2009. Courtesy RMLS
FHA Delays Implementing Rules for Condo Loans..Again
Bob Chiodo in his Oregon Financing Update in September reported on this. The Federal Housing Administration says it will implement a new approval process for condo financing on Dec. 7 – the second time the deadlines have been pushed back. The delay also brings a relaxation of new rules, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, which has been negotiating with FHA.
Under the latest revision of the rules, 50 percent of units in a condo project will be eligible for FHA funding and up to 100 percent will be eligible in “well-established” projects with a minimum of 10 percent reserves. Half of the units (50% of the total units) will have to be sold to owner-occupants before FHA will back any loans.
In an important move, FHA said it wouldn’t require the recertification of some 40,000 projects that have already been certified for FHA financing. Source: Inman News, Matt Carter (11/05/2009)
Here are the Federal Housing Administration’s new guidelines for owner occupancy and spot approval. Hopefully this will make mortgages for condominiums more accessible. I have a blog post coming soon with more details.
Atwater Update
Meanwhile, the Oregonian reports that the Atwater Place’s auction was a success in that 75% of the auctioned units have closed. The company that’s trying to unload the Atwater Place at fire sale prices wanted to close its auction sales within 30 days of the Sept. 30 event. As of last Friday, they’d recorded 30 sales among the 40 units they accepted winning bids on.
The units that haven’t sold run throughout the building from a $319,000 unit on the third floor to a $681,000 unit on the 19th floor. The auction accomplished another feat: The publicity helped generate six other new sales at comparable if not slightly higher prices per square foot.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
Yesterday I posted the RMLS™ Market Update October 2009 stats in case you missed it. Back in July 2009, I wrote a post about which areas in Portland were either a buyers, sellers or a balanced real estate market. Looking back at that post, all areas of our real estate market here in Portland have improved since July. Granted, the areas closer in were driven (and are still being driven) by the first-time home buyer’s tax credit and the high number of foreclosures. Now that program has been extended and expanded it will be interesting to see next year how the Federal program impacted our market. However, it definitely impacted the first-time home buyers and the close-in metro areas of Portland.
Here are the current numbers as of October 2009 compared to July 2009:
BALANCED REAL ESTATE MARKET IN PORTLAND
Currently, our latest October 2009 stats show Portland (which includes Clark County, Washington) having 6.5 months of inventory. 5-6 months (or under 7 months of inventory) is considered by our National Association of Realtors® as a balanced real estate market. We are at the higher end of the range, but we are definitely seeing a balanced market – good for both buyers and sellers – here in Portland, Oregon overall.
Here are the numbers for each of the areas in Portland from our latest RMLS™stats – October 2009:
Sellers Markets (obviously favoring sellers=too little inventory)
- North Portland currently has 3.9 months of inventory (in July it had 5.7 months)
- Northeast Portland currently has 4.2 months of inventory (in July it had 5.8 months)
- Southeast Portland currently has 4.6 months of inventory (in July it had 6 months)
- Beaverton-Aloha currently has 4.7 months of inventory (in July it had 6.3 months)
Balanced Markets (good for both buyers and sellers)
- Gresham/Troutdale currently has 6.1 months of inventory (in July it had 8.3 months)
- Milwaukie/Clackamas currently has 6.6 months (in July it had 6.8 months)
- North Washington County currently has 6.7 months (in July it had 7.1 months)
- Hillsboro/Forest Grove currently has 6.3 months (in July it had 9.1 months)
- Tigard/Wilsonville currently has 6.9 months (at the higher end and closer to a buyer’s market) (in July it had 9.3 months)
Buyers Markets (obviously favoring buyers=too much inventory)
- Oregon City/Canby currently has 9.8 months of inventory (in July it had 12.7 months)
- Lake Oswego/West Linn currently has 8.4 months of inventory (in July it had 11.9 months)
- West Portland currently has 8.9 months of inventory (in July it had 9.2 months)
Already we’ve been seeing multiple offer situations in the hot seller markets noted above. As we move into the spring-buying season we will undoubtedly have another frenzy of buying with multiple offer scenarios again.
Winter is a great time to buy. Serious buyers and relocation buyers will be out in our marketplace in the next several months. Rates are so low, inventory is still high in many areas and with the tax credit I am surprised many people are still on the fence. If you don’t have an agent to represent you, let me help, I’d love to be your Realtor®.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
HOORAY!!! My blog should did hit the 100,000 mark today. Thanks for reading.
RMLS™ October 2009 Stats
The October 2009 RMLS™ stats were published Thursday and I haven’t had a chance to look at them as yet. However, I am posting the report here. Our inventory of houses for sale is at the lowest we’ve seen since August 2007 and sales jumped by 64% the largest increase since 1996. I’ll post more data in the next couple of days. However, if you’ve been thinking of selling or buying, now’s a good time. With low interest rates, low inventory and the home buyer’s tax credit, it is a good time for all parties.
OTHER NEWS
There’s been a lot in the news lately but the over-riding news story has been the increase in unemployment benefits and the
extended/expanded home buyer tax credit. Here’s a great website with frequently asked questions and answers in regards to the new Home Buyer Tax credit that might come in handy for you.
There have been other news-worthy items as well:
Fannie Mae Offers Deed For Lease Program
There’s more info on their website about the Deed For Lease program.
Bend Named In Top 25 Cities
Yahoo!® recently had their Top 25 cities to recover from the economic downturn with a job recovery. The only Oregon city to make the list was Bend and it posted at #23.
23. Bend, Ore.
Q1 2010 annualized job growth: 0.8%
Q3 2009 annualized job growth: -4.7%
First quarter of recovery: Q1 2010
Unemployment rate: 14.5%
Median household income: $54,179
The economy of Bend, at the Cascade Mountains’ eastern foothills, is especially popular with hikers and skiers. Bend’s job market got hammered during the recession because it depends heavily on highly cyclical industries—construction, the retail trade, and tourism. As the overall recovery sets in, Bend and its highly volatile economy should bounce back faster than the rest of the country.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Portland
It has been awhile since I posted any information on apartments (multi-family) units here in Portland. This time I am focusing on the three areas my blog covers: RMLS#147 Lake Oswego, West Linn, RMLS#148 West Portland, and RMLS#151 Tigard. First, however, here’s the latest information from Western Real Estate Business about Portland:
WESTERN SNAPSHOT, OCTOBER 2009
Portland, Oregon, Multifamily Market
1. MARKET MOVES
Three significant Portland multifamily buildings delivered downtown in the first two quarters of 2009: Cyan/PDX (352 units developed by Gerding Edlen Development), the Ladd (332 units developed by Opus Northwest) and the Riva on the Park (294 units developed by Trammell Crow). Downtown Portland has historically been a healthy submarket for multifamily and much recent construction has been centered there, so the area is now becoming very competitive. All three of the aforementioned projects are also pursuing LEED certification, which appeals to Portland’s urban tenant.
2. MARKET MEASURE
Vacancy is an important factor in Portland’s multifamily market as it is an indicator of the overall market’s health. The vacancy rate has been trending upwards in recent quarters, which should continue in the second half of the year. It’s important to note that the increase in vacancy is due to economic pressure on tenants, not migration of people out of the metro area. Expect vacancy to regain its footing in the summer of 2010 or when economic conditions improve.
3. THE MARK OF A MARKET
Portland’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) sets it apart from other multifamily markets in the West. The UGB has prevented overbuilding in both the single-family and multifamily markets in the last 5 years. So despite the recession, Portland’s apartment market has remained relatively healthy and under built, aside from some significant building downtown. This leaves Portland’s multifamily market in a strong position and set for a robust recovery when the economy improves.
— Robert Black is an associate vice president specializing in multifamily investment sales at NAI Norris, Beggs & Simpson in Portland.
Norris Beggs & Simpson reports that:
Landlords are doing everything they can to attract the fewer active renters in the market. Concessions today in certain submarkets are sizeable, including up to two months free rent on a 13-month lease for some new properties in the downtown area. Renters looking for a new place to live are shopping around for the best deals they can get, and existing tenants are also tuned in and looking for bonuses to extend their leases on expiration.
Despite the impact of the recession on the apartment market, Portland is in a good position for the upswing. U.S. News & World Report recently named Portland and its commercial market one of the ten cities “primed for a real estate recovery,” due to its green economy and overall economic health. When the job market and overall economy starts to improve, Portland’s multifamily market will be in a strong position for a rebound.
APARTMENT – MULTI-FAMILY STATS (Click on the RMLS# for property specifics and will only be in effect for a limited number of days):
| APARTMENTMulti-FamilySTATS | ||||
| RMLS #147 Lake Oswego | RMLS# 147West Linn | RMLS#148West Portland | RMLS#151Tigard | |
| Q1 | ||||
| # Complexes Sold | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| RMLS#8106826 | ||||
| RMLS#8101633 | ||||
| High Sold $ | $1,050,000 | |||
| Low Sold $ | $792,500 | |||
| Average Sold $ | $921,250 | |||
| Days on Market | 62 | |||
| % of Sold Price vs. List Price | 87.24% | |||
| Q2 | ||||
| # Complexes Sold | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| RMLS#8071839 | RMLS#8044472 | RMLS#8048377 | ||
| RMLS#9016980 | ||||
| RMLS#8101280 | ||||
| RMLS#7083661 | ||||
| RMLS#8106074 | ||||
| High Sold $ | $525,000 | $825,000 | $280,000 | |
| Low Sold $ | $525,000 | $320,000 | $280,000 | |
| Average Sold $ | $525,000 | $447,957 | $280,000 | |
| Days on Market | 300 | 276 | 275 | |
| % of Sold Price vs. List Price | 95.45% | 81.1% | 93.65% | |
| Q3 | ||||
| # Complexes Sold | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| RMLS#9008727 | RMLS#9011509 | |||
| High Sold $ | $251,400 | $249,000 | ||
| Low Sold $ | $251,400 | $249,000 | ||
| Average Sold $ | $251,400 | $249,000 | ||
| Days on Market | 154 | 189 | ||
| % of Sold Price vs. List Price | 100.6% | 89.89% | ||
| FOR SALE NOW | ||||
| # Complexes For Sale as of10-28-09 | 5 | 8 | 32 | 10 |
| Source: RMLS |
How To Calculate The Cap Rate
Short for capitalization rate, Cap Rate is one of the most widely used formulas by real estate investors when analyzing investment property. It’s a component of return on investment for an investment property as it relates to the Purchase Price and based on the amount of Annual Net Operating Income the property will yield (not including mortgage payments or considering income tax) in proportion to the purchase price of the property.
Cap Rate is calculated by taking the Annual Net Operating Income of the investment property and dividing it by the Purchase Price.
So, the Cap Rate formula is:
Cap Rate = Annual Net Operating Income (not including mortgage payments)/Purchase Price
Note: when calculating Cap Rate, a higher resulting number is better.
Cap Rate Example: Let’s say you purchase a property for $100,000 that produces an annual net operating income of $5,000; this property would have a Cap Rate of 5% (5,000/100,000). Based on this calculation the property will generate 5% of the purchase price in income (not considering income tax) per year. If you were looking at another property with a purchase price of $100,000 that produced an Annual Net Operating Income of $8,000, this would obviously be a better deal with a calculated Cap Rate of 8% (8,000/100,000).
Note: A typical Cap Rate for investment properties ranges between 5 – 8% with an 8% cap rate typically viewed by seasoned investors as the more desirable type of investment.
Source: In part – InvestorLoft
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Click on Image for Better View
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices for 20 metropolitan areas showed a 1% increase in the seasonally adjusted median price of homes from July to August. The index has posted month-to-month gains since June of this year.
Looking at the seasonally adjusted monthly data, 17 metro areas tracked by the index showed improvements in August when compared to July. Meanwhile, 19 out of the 20 markets showed moderation in year-over-year rates of decline. This data is not seasonally adjusted and the August increase shows that was a direct result of the spring-summer selling season and the first-time home buying tax credit. As of August, home prices across the United States are still at their pre-bubble levels of autumn 2003 with Portland showing a -12.5% decrease in values since the same time last year – August 2008.
Housing market analysts cited the Federal government’s $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers as an important factor in the housing market’s recovery of late. I’ve been saying in most of my posts that Portland has also seen a better real estate market largely because of the tax credit.
John Tuccillo recently had this to say:
“Was the jump in existing home sales in September encouraging, misleading, or ho-hum? The answer is yes. It is ho-hum because the pending sales index predicted the jump. So there is nothing new happening in the housing market. It was encouraging because it was more good news about a housing market that is in real recovery.
The coming months will display a consistent positive movement in real estate. It was misleading because the additional sales were “borrowed” from 2010 because of the expiration deadline of the first time buyer tax credit. We will see sales drop as soon as the credit disappears. The state of the market is such now that even an extraordinary piece of data like a sharp monthly rise in sales can support any argument about the future of the market. Where is the truth? My intelligence from around the country tells me that we are somewhere between the last two explanations.
Where there are jobs, supressed demand is emerging and sales–unaided by extraordinary government subsidy–are happening. Yet, where there are no new jobs, the market is almost fully reliant on the tax credit. It strikes me that the best policy for real estate is to encourage in all possible ways the job creation that will guarantee a strong housing market and avoid getting addicted to a government handout that introduces yet another artificial element into the market.”
Although I am in favor of a housing tax credit to boost our market and economy, I do believe and have stated repeatedly in my blog, that until we see unemployment and foreclosures improve here locally, we won’t be seeing a significant or positive housing market in Portland.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
I had a different post written for today, but I will wait to post that until the end of October. In the meantime, our RMLS™ blog posted this information about first-time home buyers in Portland:
Homes below $400k make up 85% of sales in September
I recently read that in Phoenix, 93% of September Home Sales were below $400k. The author says that Phoenix is essentially a “tale of two markets”, one where homes in the lower priced spectrum are selling & where high-end homes are sitting.
We’ve looked at similar numbers before to see how the homebuyer tax credit was effecting the Portland market, so I figured it was time to take a look at these numbers again & see how we compare to the Phoenix sales by price range – here’s what I found:
% of Portland Home Sales by Price Range (September 2009)
| Sept. 2009 | % of Sales | Sept. 2008 | % of Sales | |
| $0-$150k | 190 | 10.4% | 115 | 6.6% |
| $150-$200k | 383 | 20.9% | 235 | 13.6% |
| $200k-$250k | 416 | 22.7% | 420 | 24.3% |
| $250k-$400k | 569 | 31.0% | 633 | 36.6% |
| $400k-$500k | 142 | 7.7% | 170 | 9.8% |
| $500k-$750k | 96 | 5.2% | 114 | 6.6% |
| $750k – $1 million + | 38 | 2.1% | 44 | 2.5% |
% of Sales by Price Range, Combined (September 2009)
As you can see, not quite as high as Phoenix, but still 85% of sales in Portland were below $400k, which is up about 4% from last September. Also note that sales below $250k are up 9.4% from last September. I suspect a lot of those sales can be attributed to the $8,000 tax credit (although some investors may also be cashing in on some lower priced homes as well). The tax credit is set to expire on November 30, and the debate rages on in Washington over its extension. It seems to have given the market here a boost, so it will be interesting to see how the market fares if/when it expires. If the tax credit does indeed expire, it would still take a lot for things to get worse this winter compared to last year. Last January we saw sales activity drag to the lowest total in the Portland metro area that we had seen since RMLS™ began keeping records in 1992. |
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
CNN just reported that Oregon in comparison to the rest of the U.S., is doing better than most:
Street Sign
“Portland is the shining example of smart growth. In 1973, Oregon passed an urban growth boundary law, which required that each of the state’s municipalities set a line in the sand on which open land could be developed.
The policy is credited with fostering Portland’s excellent reputation as an attractive, livable city — but it may have been too successful. Population growth has been so robust that some residents have complained about too much congestion in its core. And some building has been pushed out into nearby areas, such as in adjacent Washington, that have less strict policies. Meanwhile, home prices in Portland recorded a more than 86% gain from 2000 through the middle of 2007. The median, at $255,000 during the second quarter of 2009, is well above the national average of $174,000.”
PORTLAND NEIGHBORHOOD “BEST NEIGHBORHOOD” IN 2009
Ladd’s Addition in SE Portland has been named one of the “Great Neighborhoods in America for 2009″. The American Planning Association (APA) announced the country’s 10 Great Neighborhoods, 10 Great Streets, and 10 Great Public Spaces for 2009 through the organization’s Great Places in America national program. Ladd’s Addition ranked #6 out of the 10 Great Neighborhoods.
BANK-OWNED vs. SHORT-SALE STATS
The chart below shows activity from 9-1 to 9-30-09 from RMLS™ for the three areas my blog covers – RMLS™# 147 Lake Oswego, RMLS™#147 Lake Oswego, RMLS™#148 West Portland and RMLS™#151 Tigard. I wanted to see the comparison of bank-owned properties vs. short sales in those three areas. There were fewer active foreclosure listings than short sale listings in all three areas. However, there were more than twice as many foreclosures that sold and closed than short sales here locally. Bottom line, it’s the bank-owned properties that represented the better deals that buyers wanted to purchase.
According to the Oregon.live blog, the (National Association of Realtors®) NAR said that early signs from an consumer survey yet to be released indicate that first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45 percent of home sales during the past year. A separate survey shows that distressed homes accounted for 29 percent of transactions in September. (via Calculated Risk)
SHORT SALES
West Portland led the group with the highest number of short sales listed at 31 and 6 sold, Lake Oswego followed in second place with 22 short sales listed but only 1 sold, then Tigard with 20 short sales listed and 6 having sold. West Linn had the fewest number of short sales listed at 18 and 0 sold.
FORECLOSURES
West Portland again led the group and had 15 foreclosures that sold and Tigard was in second place with 12 bank owned properties that sold, West Linn had 5 foreclosures that sold whereas Lake Oswego had only 2 that closed. According to a REALTrends Report, it states that foreclosures will drop off next year due to national and local economic conditions-including a reviving economy, slowing house price depreciation, and tighter underwriting of recent loans-will lead to a decline in foreclosures in 2010.
(c) Betty Jung 2009
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. © Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws. Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Guest Author:
Bob Chiodo, CFP
Equity Home Mortgage, LLC
Just a quick note, FHA has once again postponed the condo re-approval changes until December 7, 2009. They mentioned that some of the changes won’t be as dramatic. That’s our good news for the day!
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Last month’s stats are out (you can click on the link to see the full report which covers the September numbers) and we continue to show a decrease in inventory, although not by dramatic leaps and bounds. However, any reduction in inventory is good news. Last year at this time we had 10.4 months of inventory for sale, in 2007 we had 8.4 months and this September 2009 we had 7.6 months of inventory. Sales activity continues to show improvement, although how much the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit influenced our market decreasing is unknown at this point.
The average sales price compared to last September is down by 8% and probably in large part due to the foreclosures, short sales, etc. on the market for sale and the median sale price also declined by 9.6% from last year as well.
RMLS UPDATES BLOG:
This month’s RMLS™ Market Action report showed a trend of increasing real estate sales & subsequently lower housing inventory in many areas of Oregon & Southwest Washington.
Sales Activity:
Closed sales rose in the following areas this month, compared to the same month in 2008:
| Area | Closed Sales |
| Curry County, Oregon | 100% |
| Columbia Basin, Oregon | 36.6% |
| Lane County, Oregon | 23.2% |
| Clark County, Washington | 20.2% |
| Portland Metro, Oregon | 9.8% |
Third Quarter Sales Up:
September marked the end of the third quarter and compared to Q3 in 2008, Coos County, Curry County, Douglas County, Lane County, Portland and Clark County all saw sales outpace Q3 in 2008. Clark County led the pack at a clip of 18.7%.
Inventory:
Ten of eleven areas that we cover in the Market Action report saw housing inventory drop from August. This can be attributed to rising sales in several areas and as we head into the slower fall & winter seasons, fewer homes are being listed as well.
Both the Portland and Clark County areas saw inventory drop to 7.6 months. Lane County has the lowest inventory of the areas we cover at 6.8 months.
PENDING SALES
What is of note, is that pending sales in our Portland metro area have increased almost across the board in all areas except for the Milwaukie/Clackamas and West Portland areas from last year. Overall, pending sales were up by 34.1% compared to 2008.
The following are the percentages by area as to the number of pending sales increasing from last year:
- North Portland 39.7%
- NE Portland 81.8%
- SE Portland 42.2%
- Gresham/Troutdale 47.2%
- Milwaukie/Clackamas -5.1%
- Oregon City/Canby 89.2%
- Lake Oswego/West Linn 35.4%
- West Portland -1.4%
- NW Washington County 9.8%
- Beaverton/Aloha 39.0%
- Tigard/Wilsonville 32.1%
- Hillsboro/Forest Grove 35.8%
- Mt. Hood 25.0%
- Columbia County 34.9%
- Yamhill County 45.8%
- Marion/Polk Counties 76.4%
DAYS ON THE MARKET
The days of short market times are over. Properties for sale in Lake Oswego are still having a hard time selling and that area has the longest market time with an average 204 days on the market. Northeast Portland had the shortest market time of only 84 days on the market. Last year, our metro Portland market also had fewer days on the market at 129 days compared to this year, 2009 at 131 days. There are still 13,667 houses on the market for sale in the areas covered by our RMLS.™
PORTLAND’S RECESSION
According to Moody’s latest recession status, for Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton it shows that Portland’s recession is moderating. Here is their latest August Adversity Index map. Click on map to view larger image.
In one way I’d like to see how the market does without a tax credit, although I know an extension is needed to continue to boost our real estate market and economy.
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
The Home Builders Association in Portland reported recently that sales dropped in August over July and overall sales for the first eight
months of the year were down 15 percent over the same time period in 2008. The higher-end markets tend to be lagging as well with Lake Oswego-West Linn being the “dog of the market right now”, said the group. The builder’s group also says we’ve bottomed out for homes at $350,000 or less, but the higher you go in the market, the worse the conditions are. For the upper price range, time will tell.
There is a lot of new homebuilding activity at the top of the hill in Oregon City: new excavation, framing and other positive signs of movement. As reported in one of my posts, builders are now keeping busy building on in-fill lots around the area. I also have heard rumors that METRO towards the end of the year is not planning on expanding the urban growth boundary which means builders will be scrambling for lots when the market improves and/or continuing to build on those in-fill lots.
The Homebuilders Association also says they have seen the inventory of lots decline. Existing (lot) sales are continuing at a good pace and there haven’t been many new lot listings come on the market for sale. Some lots are being tansferred back to banks from builders, and the amount of spec homes on the market has dropped noticeably from 1900 unsold spec homes in April of 2008 to 1,079 in mid September. The builders group says that it is a good sign and that the region is working its way through some of its existing inventory. Maybe it took this Great Recession for these big builders to finally figure it all out.
UPDATE ON LOCAL BUILDERS
Legend Homes: No more furnaces in the garage. Optional rain barrels and raised gardens. Solar panels, standard, on every roof. Legend Homes is upping the green ante with its new EarthSmart collection of homes in its Tigard community – Edgewater. The first Earth-Smart home models are under construction now and will be completed by the end of the year. They will have smaller footprints – 1,400 to 2,000 sq. ft. from $296,000 to $336,000.
Here’s a story about Roger Pollock (Buena Vista Custom Homes) building in Happy Valley from Oregon.live.com. I remember visiting Mr. Pollock’s house one year when it was on the Christmas Tour of Homes. The 19,000 sq. ft. house with its circular drive, on the water has all the resort amenities you can imagine. Now he says he will go smaller and cheaper.
© Copyright 2008-2009 Betty Jung. All Rights Reserved. Use of this article, photos and images without permission is a violation of federal copyright laws.
ALL ABOUT…..Portland.Oregon.Real Estate by Betty Jung is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 United States License.
Based on a Blog at WordPress.
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).
Betty Jung
Builders + Boomers = Disconnect & Lack of Housing for Seniors/Boomers in Lake Oswego
October 27, 2009 in Commentary, New Construction Stats, Builders, Lots, Seniors, Boomers, Small Houses | Tags: All About Portland Oregon Real Estate, Betty Jung, www bettyjung.com | Leave a comment
Builders + Boomers = Disconnect
I’ve written many posts about Baby Boomers, inasmuch as I am one. In holding open houses here in Lake Oswego, I meet many Baby Boomers as well. All
along I’ve been against the McMansions and have stated so. In addition, however, I have also given kudos where due to the builders who are finally getting on board and building smaller houses.
Now comes word, that everything in my blog posts is “happening” in new construction. Gone is the glitz and glam of yesterday. Gone is the popularity for the McMansions and now the 1,900 sq. ft. house is the most desired sq. ft. by Boomers. It’s the first-time home buyers, the Baby Boomers, empty-nesters, singles, and seniors that all want and need the smaller, quality-built affordable houses. All those add up to a large percentage of home buyers.
In a recent story, along with a MetLife report which I’ve written about,
Guess I’ll stay in the house I have as long as I can do the stairs, as it’s exactly that sq. footage. The article goes on to say there’s been a Builder-Boomer disconnect – I’ve only been saying that forever!
Lake Oswego + Boomers = Disconnect
In last week’s Lake Oswego Review there was an article about the City now once again concerned about the affordability of houses for its seniors and Baby Boomers. Lake Oswego has always been a high-end market with a lack of easy transportation and affordable housing.
Particularly, the West End of Lake Oswego where I live there is no easy transportation with only one limited bus route and service and you have to cross a busy highway. Situated next to I-5 and Kruse Way, the West End would be a logical place to add light-rail along those two corridors. The Kruse Woods Financial District is located at this West End, with office workers not given any choice but to drive. Certainly not an amenity the City can shout about nor can Boomers and Seniors use on a frequent basis. There are no stores or shopping within walking distance from my house other than perhaps Trader Joe’s which is about a mile away. So much for the Walk Score for its West End – the “forgotten child” of Lake Oswego’s City officials.
Everything seems to be geared towards the affluent area of First Addition and near the Lake instead. There is no easy parking at the Library and in fact I’ve had my car hit in its parking lot. Yet the Lake Oswego residents are hesitant to transfer those facilities to its West End Building. The Lake Grove Post Office is severely lacking, and it would be a great addition to the West End Building not to mention the Booktique which is currently in Mercantile Village. We bought the building, so now let’s use it. Are there any Planners on staff at Lake Oswego with the vision to make this an even better place to live?
(For more local and national real estate information, go to www.bettyjung.com).